Ryan's Journal

"My life amounts to no more than one drop in a limitless ocean. Yet what is any ocean, but a multitude of drops?" — David Mitchell


Posted from 32,000 feet above San Luis Obispo, California at 9:30 pm, January 22nd, 2009

Soley because they might be fun to read in a year, here are some predictions for 2009:

  • The stock market will be close to 10,000 at the end of the year. I’m probably jinxing it by writing that, and instead it will be closer to 6,000, but this point in history seems a lot like the mid-to-late 1990s when there were tons of promising technologies on the verge of becoming useful and creating work.
  • On that note, by the end of 2009 everyone will know what the smart grid is. With Obama focusing so heavily on energy it seems inevitable that there will be a push to upgrade the electrical grid, electrical companies will be looking for ways to save money through efficiency, and homeowners will want to save money by using smart meters to gauge when electricity is cheapest.
  • There will be at least two new national parks or monuments created. This prediction is based on nothing other than the fact that it’s been a long time so there must be something in the pipeline.
  • I will schedule another big expedition-style trip. Due to changing IAATO regulations the Cheesemans Antarctica trip in 2010-11 will be their last, although I suspect that instead of returning to Antarctica some other opportunity may arise.
  • Chrysler is going to go out of business or be purchased; GM and Ford will keep chugging along. Another major bank will fail or be purchased.
  • Obama’s approval rating will drop from its current 80% levels but still remain over 60%.
  • I will run a marathon or some similar endurance race; this one is probably wishful thinking but I am definitely getting tired of being out of shape, so who knows…
  • The “buzz” in energy will be all about bio fuels and concentrated solar. Wind and corn-ethanol will still be the most heavily used alternative energies, but concentrated solar will be seen as the most economical and reliable while fuels made using algaes and other biological sources will be seen as the future replacements for petroleum.
  • The Beatles and Garth Brooks will finally get released on iTunes. Kid Rock will not.
  • The Boeing 787 will not face any further delays – two years is late enough. The 747-8 will move into production on schedule.
  • The Indians will not make the World Series. The Browns will not make the Super Bowl but will win at least seven games. The Cavs… will not be jinxed by me.
  • Tesla Motors will still be in business, although the Model S will be delayed until the end of 2011.
  • I will still be working at DIRECTV. As much as I want to move back to the Bay Area there are a huge number of good things about my current job, and they’re being even more flexible now about letting me work remotely on occasion, making it easier to come home for three day weekends.
  • Yahoo will be purchased or merge with someone like AOL.
  • Lance Armstrong will finish in the top ten in the Tour de France but won’t be on the podium. I like the guy, but three years away from cycling is just too tough to come back from.
  • I will manage to make at least two journal entries a month, doubling my pitiful performance of 2008.

That’s what I’ve got. The comments link is there for anyone who wants to add their own or mock me for making such geeky predictions (“bio fuels?”).