Posted from Culver City, California at 11:53 am, September 11th, 2022
Our trip has sadly come to an end; after driving through Hilo and across the Saddle Road, we flew out of Kona and arrived at LAX at 11pm last night. It was an amazingly fun two weeks of manta rays, sea turtles, rainforests, and volcanoes.
Two days ago we made a visit to the impressive Punalu’u Black Sand Beach, luckily arriving early in the day before we had to heed any warnings about the sand notoriously being so hot that it causes first-degree burns. From there we headed to the southernmost part of the island, which is also the southernmost point in the United States, and home to strikingly pretty coastline, a huge number of horses and cows, and one particularly ornery donkey.
Our final event of the day was a late-night return trip to the Kilauea crater. We were initially turned away before the trailhead by a ranger due to crowds, but that detour turned into an opportunity to visit the Volcano House for a cocktail and viewing of the volcano from a different vantage. We returned to the trailhead about two hours later at around 9pm to hike out to the lava lake overlook, and took a few million photos of erupting lava under the full moon.
Kilauea crater lava lake. My 400mm lens was again popular with everyone at the overlook who wanted to see lava close-up.
Kilauea crater nighttime landscape. I wish we could say we were smart enough to have planned to be there while the full moon was illuminating the landscape, but apparently we were just very lucky on this trip.
Posted from Volcano, Big Island, Hawaii at 9:12 pm, September 8th, 2022
Last night after exploring our new rainforest retreat home we headed into Volcanoes National Park after dark to see if we could do some photography of Kilauea’s latest eruption. After a mile long hike under a nearly-full moon a portion of the horizon started glowing red, and then we emerged onto the park’s lone lookout that provides a view of the erupting vents. A surprising number of other people also made the hike at night, and my 400mm lens proved to be a popular way for the folks there to look into the crater, nearly two miles away. Spending an evening photographing an erupting volcano is a far more interesting way to pass time than my normal Wednesday night regimen.
After arriving home late last night (11pm) we slept in (6:30am), lounged around the cottage, then went back to the park to explore a few more overlooks, the Thurston Lava Tube, and the 20 mile Chain of Craters drive that travels through craters, lava fields, rain forest, and eventually emerges at the sea where the 35 year long eruption of Puʻuʻōʻō (1983-2018) covered more than 45 square miles and added 203 acres of land to Hawaii’s coast.
Kilauea crater at night (five second exposure).
Kilauea crater at night (ten second exposure). The red flares far from the main vent are cracks in the solidified surface of the 1000 foot deep lava lake.
Posted from Volcano, Big Island, Hawaii at 7:28 pm, September 7th, 2022
This post is being written from a location in a rainforest a few miles east of the 1000 foot deep Kilauea crater lava lake. Coqui frogs are chirping (loudly) outside in the fern-covered trees, and we’re hanging out under soft lights in a wooden cottage with a wraparound deck. I did something right in a past life.
When the journal last left off we had returned from our second manta ray dive. The adventures since then couldn’t compare, but it has nevertheless been fun. We took a lounge day to rest up, during which I snorkeled with sea turtles a few times in water with limited visibility, so while they were the most chill turtles I’ve ever been around (one kept moving closer to me as he grazed on algae, until I finally had to get out of his way), the videos don’t do the experience justice. While celebrating with drinks and snacks at sunset we looked out in the water and saw two small (six foot) mantas cruising the shallows, apparently drawn in by plankton that were attracted to the hotel’s lights. Their wingtips kept popping out of the water as they looped around in water that didn’t look deep enough to support such a large fish, obviously enjoying their dinner.
Today we left the Kona area and headed south around the island towards Volcano Village. We were tipped off to an epic snorkel location, so after a visit to the Heavenly Hawaiian coffee plantation we drove down to the coast and jumped in the water, and were almost immediately greeted by a four foot moray who surprisingly swam around, fully visible, for several minutes; they are almost always tucked into crevices with only their heads sticking out, so seeing one out in the water for such a long time was special. The rest of the snorkel was great, too, with lava and coral combining to create an underwater metropolis of fish.
We made a very brief stop at Kilauea on the way here, but had to rush in order to checkin, so we’re returning to hopefully take some nighttime photos of the current eruption, provided there aren’t too many people with the same plan already there.
Posted from Kona, Big Island, Hawaii at 5:29 pm, September 6th, 2022
Our second day-of-much-scuba took place yesterday, and it started in spectacular fashion with a tiger shark cruising the harbor. The divemasters immediately announced that we’d be diving with the shark (“don’t worry, they never attack divers, just don’t stay on the surface or splash around or break eye contact if she’s swimming towards you.”). Upon descending the shark was nowhere to be found (not at all unnerving to know that you’re sharing the water with a twelve foot tiger shark), but it was still a really good dive, with eels and octopus aplenty. The second dive of the morning was also shark free, and we surfaced to a boat that wouldn’t start, so we ended up getting towed back to the harbor by the same Navy SEAL boat that we snorkeled from yesterday.
The evening dive was a return to manta ray paradise, and we went in with low expectations after Friday’s extravaganza. Our fears of a less spectacular evening diminished immediately after jumping in the water when we saw a manta slowly gliding through the water below us. Upon arriving at the “campfire” a half dozen mantas were already circling, and if it’s possible I think this dive exceeded our experience on Friday. “Lisa” kept buzzing us an inch overhead, and several other mantas whose names I lost track of circled, did 360 degree loops, and otherwise kept us enthralled for the full forty-five minutes that we were allowed to stay underwater. This was definitely one of my favorite dives of all time, and both Audrey and I would do it again in a heartbeat if we ever return to this island.
Posted from Kailua-Kona, Hawaii at 10:38 pm, September 4th, 2022
I’m doing a poor job of writing daily entries, so here’s another catch-up of our time on the Big Island thus far.
We arrived on Thursday, and booked a full day of scuba diving for Friday. The two morning dives were fun but mostly uneventful – a few sea turtles, a bunch of morays, tons of reef fish. The evening dive, however, was the one we’d been looking forward to. At sunset we were moored near the airport, and the divemasters gave us instructions before we descended forty feet into darkness. Immediately two huge rays were gliding over us, and as we settled into our place around the underwater “campfire” of dive lights, more and more giant manta rays began appearing. For the next forty-five minutes we were treated to a show with a cast of over twenty different mantas, some of which were nearly sixteen feet across. Having giant rays glide by close enough to touch (which we didn’t of course, although the rays bumped into people on multiple occasions) was a magical way to spend an hour. After getting out of the water we were told that the average night sees 2-3 mantas present, so we got an amazing show.
Our next day we had scheduled a pelagic snorkel, where we headed out to deep water looking for sharks, whales, or whatever might be around. The company we booked through initially had boat issues, so they re-booked us with Wild Hawaii Ocean Adventures, and we somehow found ourselves heading out to sea at 9am aboard an 11m long Navy SEAL assault vessel, cruising in mile deep water looking for sharks to swim with. Sadly it seems we had used up our good karma with the mantas, so our four hour adventure did not include any big animals, but we did get to do some short snorkels in both shallow and deep water, and cruising around at 35 mph in a fast attack boat is not the worst way to spend a morning. Finishing up our 48 hours of activities, we closed out the night with a luau at the resort, where I ate and drank enough to last for several meals.
Today was a rest day, and after a late (6:30am) wakeup we lounged before doing a loop up to Hawi and Waimea, where we had a great view of the summit of 13,796 foot Mauna Kea volcano, as well as some amazing coastline views.
Posted from Kailua-Kona, Hawaii at 8:40 am, September 1st, 2022
Yesterday, after waking up and feeding the koi with Audrey, I picked up Aaron and we snorkeled with the world’s friendliest butterflyfish and a tiny eel for just over an hour before heading back to the hotel for a trip down the lazy river, ten rides of the waterslide (the kids were mostly not upset to have to share with grownups), and a loop around the saltwater lagoon. After failing to act our age all day I took Aaron home, and then the day finished with Audrey and me enjoying a fancy dinner at sunset.
Today I got up to see the sunrise, came back to wake Audrey up for breakfast, and now we’re off for one last chance to feed the koi before heading to the airport for our next adventure after five excellent days in Kauai.
Posted from Poipu, Kauai, Hawaii at 7:41 pm, August 30th, 2022
My parents are back in Kauai for their biennial trip, and Audrey, Aaron and me are here to join them. Today is day four of our trip, so I’ve obviously been terrible about writing journal entries. To remedy that, here’s a recap of the trip so far:
Day one saw us arrive and purchase obscene quantities of seared Ahi from the Koloa Fish Market. If you ever visit Kauai, put this place on your list, the Ahi is ridiculously good. From there we checked into our hotel and I spent more time in the lazy river and waterslide than is generally acceptable for a man in his forties.
On day two we jumped in the sea to do some snorkeling over at the reef near the Beach House restaurant. There was a bit of current parallel to the coast, and I made the unfortunate decision to exit the water onto some rocks rather than fighting the current back to our entry point; I’ve got a few new battle scars on my foot, hand and ribs to show for it, but we nevertheless had fun seeing an array of fish including an oriental flying gurnard that Audrey spotted. My parents arrived in the evening after a delayed flight and a myriad of other misadventures, so we joined them for rum drinks at sunset to help them forget their troubles.
Day three Audrey joined me for a morning scuba, leaving my parents to enjoy the massive breakfast buffet that is included in our hotel rate; my dad seemed to at least temporarily forget about the trip’s problems when faced with an omelette bar and a few dozen other breakfast choices. The currents were strong on our first dive but we still saw a few sharks, many turtles, and a bunch of other neat critters. After a rough surface interval that saw a couple of divers returning their breakfasts we jumped back into the water at Sheraton Caverns, which I previously referred to as “sea turtle wonderland“. That moniker held true again, as we saw dozens of turtles resting in the collapsed lava tubes as we swam around.
Today was an opportunity to go on an adventure with my brother, so based on a recommendation from the dive master we set off for the Nu’alolo trail, a 7.5 mile round trip that descended from the forests above Waimea Canyon down to the turret-like buttes of the Napali Coast, two thousand feet above the Pacific. We’re pretty sure “Nu’alolo” is Hawaiian for “slippery mud”, but the views at the end were definitely worth it.
Video from Audrey of a sea turtle heading for a nap at Sheraton Caverns.
Another of Audrey’s video of a moray at Sheraton Caverns.
Posted from Culver City, California at 10:32 pm, January 31st, 2022
Continuing my questionable tradition of making bad predictions about the coming year, here are the 14th annual yearly predictions. As always, have a look at my horrendous track record before you go out and invest your savings based on anything suggested below.
In the 2022 midterms, Democrats will keep the Senate, gaining between 1-3 seats. It’s a bad election environment for Democrats, but they have a favorable Senate map. There are 14 Democratic Senators up for reelection while Republicans are defending 20 seats. While a state like Georgia may flip Republican, Democrats have decent pickup opportunities in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Another election prediction, Republicans will regain the House, gaining 20-30 seats. Between redistricting, a history of losses by the President’s party in midterms, and a tough election environment, it looks like a bad year for House Democrats.
SpaceX will have a successful orbital test of their new Starship vehicle, but won’t successfully land the vehicle by the end of the year. I think it’s going to take them a few tries to get a vehicle to orbit and back, and the FAA might slow down the cadence of launches, but if they can launch at least three tests I think one will successfully get to space and make it back to the surface, even if the “surface” means a soft landing out on the ocean.
A viable Facebook competitor is finally going to emerge. This prediction is more of a wish rather than something I feel confident will happen, but Facebook is in the doghouse with users and regulators, so there has never been a better time for someone else to launch a competing social network. We’ve had almost two decades to figure out how people use social networks, so whatever comes next can take those learnings to create something vastly better – imagine if instead of just being able to click the “surprised face” emoji when someone posts a picture of their breakfast, you could also easily use your social network to get a job, find a date, or meet an exercise buddy?
Median home prices will decline 5-10 percent by the end of the year. Median home prices are at $408,100 for Q4 2021, a slight dip from Q3, and as interest rates rise and construction costs are less affected by supply chain bottlenecks it seems like they’ll continue to decline and return to where they were at the start of 2021.
President Biden’s Build Back Better bill will pass in some form this year. If Democrats will capitulate to Joe Manchin’s demands they can pass something, and “we passed a bunch legislation addressing health care and climate change, and if you elect more Democrats we’ll be able to do even more” is the argument I’d want to be making if I was insane enough to be a politician.
COVID will fade into the background and life will return to normal once the Omicron wave subsides. After a year of waiting for a vaccine, followed by a year of people not getting that vaccine, the Omicron variant will finally be the catalyst that ends this pandemic. Omicron is so contagious that pretty much everyone will at least be exposed to it, and the combination of vaccine immunity and natural immunity will finally get us through this virus. I’m basing this prediction on numbers from South Africa, where case rates have declined precipitously from their early-December peak.
Amazon is going to announce a shipping service to compete with UPS and Fedex. Amazon already delivers millions of packages each day, so leveraging that infrastructure to do customer shipping seems like an easy win. Amazon has plenty of convenient dropoff locations (lockers, stores, etc), which eliminates the cost of sending a driver to someone’s house for pickups, and they clearly know how to do 1-2 day delivery, so this seems like an area where Amazon could charge less than competitors and still make a hefty profit.
It is going to be a wild offseason for NFL quarterbacks. There are vacancies in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh, a few big name QBs seem disgruntled, and there aren’t a lot of highly-touted prospects in the draft, so the 2022 season will start with a lot of new faces throwing the ball. I’ll predict that there will be monster trades for at least two of these three: Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr. I’ll also predict that despite the hot market, Deshaun Watson is going to stay unemployed as long as he remains in legal trouble, and that the Browns are sticking with Baker.
The Ford F-150 Lightning will run away with Motortrend’s 2022 Truck of the Year award. I’m incredibly impressed with Ford’s electrification efforts, and think that they are going to surprise a lot of people over the next decade.
This year will finally see major progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel’s new president has expressed a desire to make progress, the Biden administration wants to see progress, so this will finally be the year the talks produce meaningful results.
At least three more major newspapers will follow the Chicago Sun Times and become non-profits. In addition to the Sun Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer became a non-profit in 2016, and the Tampa Bay Times has been a non-profit for decades, but 2022 will be the year that more foundations and donors step in to save the dying local news industry. There is an increasing public awareness of the need for accurate and unbiased local news, and rather than seeing more newsrooms die, this year will see the NPR business model applied to print journalism.
2022 will see video game streaming become a major selling point of streaming services like Amazon Prime, Netflix, and Apple TV. Tech companies have been paying huge sums to stream movies and develop TV shows, but have thus far mostly just dabbled in video games. With streaming hardware containing more computing power than older game consoles, and vast libraries of vintage games available, this year will see a massive push to put game libraries in everyone’s TV set, and tech companies will start buying up game studios so that we can all play Mario Kart and Angry Birds using our Prime subscription.
One final prediction: the Browns will win the AFC North and will win at least 11 regular season games. There, I’ve jinxed them, and they’ll definitely go 2-15 now, but they’ve got all of the necessary pieces, and if they can’t win with this team then they’ll probably have to start over in 2023 with a new quarterback, and the universe can’t hate Cleveland enough to put everyone through that again, can it?
And that’s it. It is shockingly difficult to come up with fifteen predictions for the new year, but for some twisted reason I still enjoy doing them. We can all reconvene in twelve months, at which time we can recap how embarrassingly incorrect these guesses about 2022 turned out to be.
The COVID vaccine rollout will go smoothly once the new administration settles in, and the economy will rebound quickly once vaccination rates hit critical mass, causing the current unemployment rate of 6.7% to drop below 4.0% by the end of the year.
CORRECT. The unemployment rate hit 3.9% in December, and even critics seem to agree that the vaccine rollout has been smooth. The thing I failed to predict was that a year later only 62.9% of the population would be fully vaccinated against COVID and opposition to vaccination requirements would become increasingly mainstream; I’m not looking forward to future battles over whether or not to continue requiring vaccination for polio and diphtheria.
At least one of the following Senators will leave the Republican party this year and begin caucusing with Democrats: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, or Pat Toomey.
WRONG. This prediction was a longshot, but I’m a little surprised that someone like Murkowski or Collins didn’t jump ship. Both are on the fringe of their party and could win re-election as Democrats, and either of them could have replaced Joe Manchin as the swing vote for the Build Back Better bill, securing just about anything they wanted in return for helping to get that bill across the finish line.
SpaceX will not conduct an orbital test of their new Starship rocket, but will be on track to do so in 2022.
CORRECT. Obligatory comment: SPACE IS SO AWESOME AND THIS IS THE BEST TIME IN HISTORY FOR ADVANCEMENTS IN SPACEFLIGHT TECHNOLOGY AND I AM SO HAPPY. That bit out of the way, SpaceX was launching test flights of its new vehicle seemingly every few weeks earlier in the year, but after a successful sub-orbital flight in May they have been focused on building their launchpad, getting FAA approval, and constructing orbital test vehicles. The latest estimate is that we may see an orbital test in March of 2022, which is incredibly exciting given the potential of this new vehicle to economically transport humans and cargo beyond Earth.
Rivian will begin delivery of their all-electric R1T truck before the end of the summer, and will steal some of Tesla’s thunder by winning the truck of the year award from Motor Trend.
CORRECT. Rivian’s R1T truck did indeed win Motortrend Truck of the Year, with Motortrend describing it as “the most remarkable pickup truck we’ve ever driven”. For a while it seemed like it was mostly just engineers who understood that electric vehicles weren’t just for tree huggers but were also vastly superior technology, but with Tesla, Rivian, and even Ford pumping out incredible vehicles like the electric Mustang and F-150, the rest of the world is starting to come to the same realization.
The Browns will trade back at least twice during the 2021 NFL draft, and will end the draft with at least one extra 2022 draft pick in the third round or better.
WRONG. The Browns did pick up an extra 2022 fourth round pick, but that was their only trade back. Their first two draft picks were both named to postseason all-rookie teams, so even without trading back, the math guys still got it right. They might not win much during the season, but the Browns are perennial offseason champs.
Americans will win at least three gold medals in the mid-distance and distance events at the Tokyo Olympics.
WRONG. Nineteen year old 800m runner Athing Mu was a true phenom, going from being a high school star in 2019 to gold medal winner in 2021, but she was America’s only gold medal winner in the mid-distance and distance events. The United States did also pick up a silver medal in the women’s steeplechase and bronze medals in the men’s 5000m, women’s 800m, and women’s marathon, but my hopes for three gold medals was unfortunately optimistic.
The Avatar sequel will bring people back to movie theaters and will be on its way towards a top-three all-time box office showing by the time these prediction are revisited next year.
EMBARRASSINGLY WRONG. Apparently they announced in July 2020 that the Avatar 2 release date was going to be pushed back to December 2022 and I missed that news and thus made a truly awful prediction. The movie was originally supposed to come out in 2015, so after seven years of delay hopefully James Cameron finally gets this film on screens by the end of this year.
The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will receive permanent protection, either through a national monument designation or via an act of Congress.
Congress will pass bills shoring up Obamacare, addressing voting rights, and dealing with immigration, but nothing will get through the Senate related to gun control, marijuana legalization, or giving statehood to Puerto Rico and Washington DC.
WRONG. The Build Back Better Act would have shored up Obamacare but seems to be in limbo now, and Democrats continue to fail to understand that they need to pare back ambitions on voting rights and immigration so that ten Republican Senators will join them, so this prediction didn’t pan out. While it’s tempting to believe that there’s nothing that could get ten Republican votes, Republicans did vote for the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill that will be hugely transformational. Also, even though it didn’t get any Republican votes the $1.9 trillion Covid Relief bill was also a profoundly important piece of legislation that prevented massive cutbacks at the state and local government levels. While I would have preferred to see Democrats figure out how to pass legislation fixing the holes in Obamacare, pushing to mitigate climate change, etc, I’m amazed that two huge pieces of legislation that will have incredibly beneficial effects over the next ten years passed and most Democrats still seem to view the past year as a failure.
Google will announce some sort of streaming service to compete with Netflix, leveraging its massive library of YouTube content and its expertise in AI for targeting content.
WRONG. YouTube TV apparently has between 3-4 million subscribers, which is a paltry number compared to something like Disney+ and its 118 million subscribers. I have the business sense of a rock, but it still seems to me like streaming is an area that Google should dominate, but instead year after year they are allowing other companies to become more and more entrenched while Google does almost nothing.
2021 will see high-speed, wireless home internet begin to displace wired home internet.
WRONG. Tortoises move slowly, glaciers move even more slowly, and then there are the telecoms. Verizon, AT&T, etc could all easily take over the home internet market from the cable companies, but apparently they plan to rollout 5G home internet at about the same time that the personal robots and flying cars arrive.
Following Brexit, Scotland will vote for independence and will rejoin the EU.
WRONG. In my defense I admitted that this was unlikely to happen this year, but the process is even more complex than I realized, apparently requiring approval from the UK before Scotland can even put another independence vote on the ballot.
Facebook and Twitter will take significant actions to address misinformation, threats, and bots on their networks.
WRONG. I continue to be befuddled as to how a company whose sole product is 280 character messages that their brilliant marketing department decided to call “tweets” makes money. Meanwhile Facebook seems to be in a battle with Kim Jong-Un for the top spot on the “world’s least popular” list. Still, I’ve been predicting for years that both Twitter and Facebook would finally pay a price for their shortcomings, and for years I’ve been utterly wrong, so what do I know.
HALF CORRECT. The Cybertruck is now supposed to arrive in 2023 (originally scheduled to launch in 2021). In January 2021 Elon Musk said the Tesla Semi would ship by the end of the year, but later in the year said it wouldn’t launch until 2023; it was originally supposed to launch in 2019. Musk has brought some truly transformational technology to market over the past decade so I probably shouldn’t criticize, but still… maybe company resources should go towards getting the current roadmap to market before announcing an initiative to create C3-PO?
With the NBA season ending a month later than normal, most NBA players will opt out of playing in the Olympics, and as a result the USA will not win the gold or silver medal.
WRONG. While most of the major stars like Steph Curry and James Harden did end up skipping the Olympics, the USA still won a gold medal despite losing to Nigeria and Australia in their first two exhibition games, and then having their 25-game Olympic win streak broken in a loss to France in their first game in Tokyo.
The final tally for 2021: 3.5 out of 15 (23%). A result that should be terribly embarrassing, but it’s far from my worst showing ever, and the whole reason these predictions are fun to make is because I try to stay away from anything too obvious. The 2022 version should be online soon for those who like to follow along at home.