The server that used to run mountaininterval.org, as well as a few other sites, was coming up on its tenth birthday, so it seemed like a good time to move on from 2013 and upgrade to a new machine. I think I migrated everything over successfully, but if anyone has issues logging in, leaving comments, or anything else please let me know.
15 Years of Bad PredictionsPosted from Culver City, California at 11:12 pm, January 23rd, 2023
For reasons that are now lost to history, back in 2009 I thought it might be fun to make some predictions about the coming year. That initial post started a string of fifteen straight years of making ill-informed and usually incorrect guesses about what was to transpire over the upcoming twelve months. While the journal hasn’t seen a ton of posts over the past few years, the tradition of bad predictions has lived on, so without further ado, here’s a list of 15 things that probably won’t happen in 2023.
- SpaceX is going to have several spectacular failed launch attempts of its new Starship rocket, but will get the vehicle to orbit.
With the caveat that in a few years they will almost certainly be launching and landing the world’s largest and most powerful rocket regularly, Starship is a brand new vehicle using a lot of unproven technologies, and Elon Musk is known to push the boundaries, so I think this year they will have a few spectacular failures. If it has a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly anywhere near the launchpad they will need to spend months rebuilding the launch infrastructure, so a single failure could result in six months of delays before they can try again.
- Apple is going to launch a new VR headset, but despite a ton of initial press it won’t catch on with consumers.
VR headsets seem (to me) like a cool idea that I would never want to actually own, but I’m also getting to the “you kids stay off of my lawn” stage of life, so maybe I’m missing something. I think augmented reality glasses will be a thing soon – imagine driving and having directions appear on your glasses, or going to a party and not having to worry about forgetting everyone’s name – but a clunky VR box to wear around so that you can experience a TRON-like view of the Grand Canyon from your living room? It seems fun once, but not something people will want to spend $1500 on.
- The Ukraine war will end by summer, with Russia ceding all claims to Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, in exchange for some sort of face-saving gesture like a promise that Ukraine won’t join NATO.
Everyone has been inspired by Ukraine’s defense against a much larger foe, but Russia continues to do incredible damage to Ukraine despite slowly losing this war. Putin needs a way to save face, and Ukraine needs Russia to stop raining destruction down upon them, so once Ukraine has retaken its territory I think that both sides will be highly motivated to negotiate an end to hostilities.
- Ford will be responsible for 30% of all US EV sales by the end of the year.
As of Q3, Ford had 7.2% of EV sales, but they are massively ramping up production of the F-150, Mach-E, and Ford Transit van, all of which have enormous demand. Ford is going to be able to sell as many EVs as they can build, and all indications are that they will be able to build a lot.
- The US will default on its debt for the first time in history.
This is a prediction that I hope doesn’t come true, but in its early days the current Republican House majority has let its far right members drive the agenda, with the supposed moderates doing nothing to stop them. As a result, I think Democrats will refuse to make concessions for agreeing to pay the country’s bills, Republicans will be unwilling to back down, and markets will panic as the US finds itself facing default. My 401k is not excited about this prospect, so again, I hope this prediction is very, very wrong.
- Tesla will begin deliveries of its new Cybertruck by June 2023, but they won’t offer the truck for the $39,900 that was initially announced, and won’t sell a model that costs less than $50,000 in 2023.
Tesla has a history of announcing prices for vehicles that don’t materialize; for example the Model 3 was supposed to cost $35,000 when it was announced, but the cheapest version of the vehicle today is $43,990, and that’s after a recent $3,000 price drop. While they will claim that a $39,900 Cybertruck is coming some day, I’m betting we definitely won’t see that price in 2023, and probably won’t see it in the future.
- Donald Trump will drop out of the 2024 Presidential Race before the end of the year.
Republican politicians have blamed Trump for losses in the past three elections, and polls seem to indicate that Republican voters want someone new. Meanwhile, there is an argument to be made that Trump is primarily running to fund his legal troubles or to benefit his own businesses, and with money not flowing as fast these days he may seek out other options for addressing his financial difficulties. With the current Justice Department understandably reticent to set a precedent by prosecuting a former President, it seems possible that a deal may be offered to end some of the legal cases against him in exchange for him getting out of the political spotlight, and with pressure coming from the Right as well it could lead to an early exit from the Presidential race.
- Layoffs will continue in the technology sector in 2023, but there won’t be a broad recession.
Statistics indicate that about 200,000 jobs have been cut in the technology sector during the most recent round of retrenchment, but as a tech worker I actually think that this was overdue. COVID made remote work the norm, allowing a massive number of people to change jobs, and for the technology sector in particular this led to gigantic salary increases as companies struggled to keep existing employees and replace lost employees. Today a lot of tech companies have people on the payroll at huge cost, and as a result it seems likely there will be significant cost-cutting going on in tech, while other industries will be able to continue as normal.
- At least two of the following three things will happen in the NFL: Tom Brady will retire (for real this time), Aaron Rodgers will retire, and Jimmy Garoppolo will join the New York Jets.
While I’m usually bad at predictions, I’m particularly bad at predicting the NFL, but the only reason Rodgers and Brady have to continue playing is that they want to win Super Bowls, and neither Tampa Bay nor Green Bay are favorites to win the Super Bowl next year. Meanwhile, San Francisco can’t afford to keep Jimmy Garoppolo, and the Jets think they are a quarterback away from going to the Super Bowl.
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will be a flop, earning less than the $317 million that the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull made.
Everyone wants to see another good Indiana Jones movie, but the last one featured a terrible plot and CGI monkeys, and there doesn’t seem to be any good reason why they’re making another movie. Let’s hope they go out with a bang, but it’s been 42 years since Raiders of the Lost Ark came out; if you want a franchise to last that long, follow the lead of James Bond and get a fresh cast and creative crew.
- Joe Biden will announce that he is running for a second term, and no major Democrat aside from (maybe) Bernie Sanders will announce that they are running against him.
Biden quietly accomplished a ton during his first two years, and while there are serious concerns about his age, I’m not sure if the Democrats have an obviously better option to put on the ballot for 2024.
- Kathleen Kennedy will be removed as the head of Lucasfilm.
As an unabashed Star Wars fan I’m impressed by the new Mandalorian and Andor Star Wars shows, but have been massively disappointed by most of the new films and most of their other shows. Kennedy doesn’t seem to be a fan of Star Wars, and the franchise is too valuable to Disney to not have someone better at the helm. Were I betting man, Dave Filoni or Jon Favreau would be my picks to steer the ship moving forward.
- Twitter will see declining revenue and user engagement under Elon Musk, but no viable competitor will emerge by the end of the year.
Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter has seemed to me to be a clinic in how not to run a business. He has alienated advertisers, fired employees without understanding their role, and fundamentally misunderstood that Twitter isn’t a technology company as much as it is a moderated community of users. That being said, there isn’t yet a viable competitor, and none seems to be on the horizon, so he’ll have a while yet to figure things out.
- Athing Mu of the USA will break the 40 year old world record in the women’s 800m.
Athing Mu has been unbeatable since she was a high schooler in New Jersey. Last year she caught COVID and it affected her season, but this year I think she’ll come back with a vengeance and is capable of breaking one of track and field’s oldest world records.
- 2023 will see two “quiet” supersonic planes successfully flying over our heads.
NASA is planning to fly their X-59 plane in 2023, and expects the plane to have a sonic “thump” that is only 1/1000th as loud as the sonic boom of existing supersonic planes. Meanwhile Boom Aerospace should be flying their XB-1 plane by mid-year. As Boeing’s long-delayed 777-X proves, there are no guarantees with test aircraft, but just as SpaceX revolutionized access to space over the past decade, I think we’re on the verge of seeing supersonic passenger travel return to the skies.
And there they are. Fifteen predictions for the fifteenth year of making predictions, and based on history most of these will be laughably incorrect twelve months from now. Still, it’s a fun little exercise, and I’ll see everyone at the start of 2024 to recount how awful this year’s prognostications actually were.
2022 Predictions RecapPosted from Culver City, California at 9:58 am, January 8th, 2023
Here’s the recap of my annual exercise in public embarrassment, otherwise known as the predictions about the coming year. The original 2022 predictions were written twelve months ago in January, during the halcyon days in which Tom Brady was still retired and Elon Musk hadn’t yet decided to purchase Twitter and
burn it to the ground lead the company to newfound glory.
Democrats will keep the Senate, gaining between 1-3 seats.
CORRECT. I’m off to an unexpectedly strong start. Democrats picked up Pennsylvania and held on in Georgia (decisively winning the “vampire vs werewolf” demographic), thus increasing their majority by one seat from 50 to 51.
Republicans will regain the House, gaining 20-30 seats.
WRONG. Republicans did win the House, but to everyone’s surprise they netted only nine additional seats. Since it took fifteen votes for the normally-routine task of electing a Speaker, I’m debating converting my 401k to canned goods before the markets have to face the fallout from likely government shutdowns and debt ceiling defaults over the next two years.
SpaceX will have a successful orbital test of their new Starship vehicle, but won’t successfully land the vehicle by the end of the year.
WRONG. SpaceX was blasting its new rocket into the sky seemingly every week back in 2021, but despite getting clearance from the FAA for an orbital test, they didn’t attempt a single launch in 2022. Hopefully 2023 will be the year that sees this game-changing rocket usher us into the Star Trek future we’ve been waiting for since the Apollo program ended.
A viable Facebook competitor is finally going to emerge.
WRONG. I feel like I’ve been predicting this one for years, and for years it hasn’t happened. There are some obvious challenges – any new social network is pointless unless it has a lot of users, so barrier to entry is massive – but Facebook is distracted with selling virtual real estate to cartoon characters when the world really just needs a social network that can effectively help people find dates, jobs, and plumbers.
Median home prices will decline 5-10 percent by the end of the year.
WRONG. Median home prices ended 2021 at $423,600, and despite the mortgage rates climbing from 3% to 7% in 2022, average home prices still increased to $454,900 as of Q3. With only one out of five correct, the 2022 predictions are obviously not going well thus far.
President Biden’s Build Back Better bill will pass in some form this year.
NAILED IT. Joe Manchin made things dicey for a while, but once they tricked him by changing the name to the Inflation Reduction Act, the House & Senate couldn’t move fast enough to pass this thing before the election. The engineer in me is excited to see legislation that speeds up the transition to batteries, wind and solar, while the environmentalist in me is looking forward to seeing a future that hopefully has a few unmelted glaciers in it.
Tesla will face lawsuits or otherwise be forced to issue refunds for its delays in delivering on its “full self driving” package.
CORRECT. A class action lawsuit was filed in September. Elon Musk has been making yearly promises that full self driving is “only a year away” every year since 2014, so as much as I admire Tesla’s engineering, it seems only fair to start sending out refunds to people who didn’t realize that when Elon said “one year away” he was using Jupiter years and not Earth years.
COVID will fade into the background and life will return to normal once the Omicron wave subsides.
CORRECT. In retrospect this prediction seems relatively obvious, but after nearly three years of masks and lockdowns it has been a nice return to normalcy to be able to visit friends or travel on an airplane without feeling like a character in a post-apocalypic disaster movie.
Amazon is going to announce a shipping service to compete with UPS and Fedex.
WRONG. This seems like it could be an easy profit center for Amazon, but I’m a programmer, not a businessman, so I’ll defer to the people that actually know what they’re doing to explain why a company that is already delivering to the same places as UPS each day couldn’t also make money shipping private parcels.
There will be monster trades for at least two of these three: Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr. I’ll also predict that Deshaun Watson is going to stay unemployed and that the Browns are sticking with Baker.
WRONG. At least I got Russell Wilson correct? When I wrote these predictions last year, Tom Brady was still retired, and I had no idea that the Browns wanted to make a younger version of Bill Cosby the face of their franchise. As someone recently wrote in the Washington Post, I’m not going to stop watching football, but I probably should.
The Ford F-150 Lightning will run away with Motortrend’s 2022 Truck of the Year award.
CORRECT. Not only did it win, but it won unanimously. I’m really impressed with Ford’s electrification efforts so far, and the current F-150 was built on a platform that is still optimized for gas powered vehicles. When they eventually switch their manufacturing to a new platform that is optimized for electric Ford is going to give Tesla a run for their money.
This year will finally see major progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
WRONG. Not only didn’t this happen, but Benjamin Netanyahu was re-elected for a sixth term, so the prospects of a peaceful resolution anytime soon appear grim. Sometimes I don’t understand the humans.
At least three more major newspapers will follow the Chicago Sun Times and become non-profits.
WRONG. As far as I can tell not even a single newspaper took the non-profit route this year. Does anyone reading this journal have a spare hundred million to throw at the LA Times or other newspapers? The death of local news is going to be something that historians are writing about fifty years from now.
Video game streaming will become a major selling point of streaming services like Amazon Prime, Netflix, and Apple TV.
WRONG. The fact that this prediction didn’t come true surprises me greatly. There are rumors that Amazon is spending a billion dollars on the Lord of the Rings series, surely they could get a better return on investment by putting Wii Golf and Doom on Fire TV sticks?
The Browns will win the AFC North and will win at least 11 regular season games.
WRONG. I am never making another prediction about the Browns again.
Final score: 5/15, which surprisingly is an above-average result. 2023 will mark the fifteenth year of making incorrect guesses about the future; those predictions should be online in the next couple of weeks.
Exciting timesPosted from Culver City, California at 8:32 pm, October 22nd, 2022
I’ve mostly been using the journal for travel logs over the past couple of years, but the other day I was thinking about all of the news that I’ve gotten excited about this year, and realized how much cool stuff has occurred. Since it’s easy to focus on everything wrong in the world, here’s my list of a few things that have gone very right lately.
- The Infrastructure Act. Signed into law in November 2021, this law adds $550 billion in new spending for transportation infrastructure, energy infrastructure, water infrastructure, and broadband infrastructure. I’m an engineer by training, so any time I see infrastructure projects I get excited, but this bill in particular excites me since the US has been under-investing in infrastructure for decades, and infrastructure is an investment that tends to pay for itself many times over in the long run. And for those with concerns about the cost, I think there’s a strong argument to be made that if we’re OK with spending $740 billon for just one year on the military, a once-in-a-generation investment of $550 billion for infrastructure isn’t too extreme.
- The Inflation Reduction Act. In non-political speak, this bill is The One About Climate Change and Health Care. With a surprise change of heart from Joe Manchin after they renamed “Build Back Better” to “Inflation Reduction”, the biggest investment in clean energy in US history became law in August 2022, putting $391 billion towards electric vehicles, wind, solar, batteries, grid modernization, and other climate change mitigation, while also updating Obamacare to extend subsidies, fix some warts, and allow price negotiation with drug companies. Carl Sagan testified before Congress in 1985 about the dangers posed by climate change; four decades later the country is slowly beginning to do some of the things that he recommended when I was an elementary school student. That depressing fact aside, in the words of a former vice president, the IRA is a big <bleeping> deal. Much like how the American Recovery Act of 2009 resulted in solar and wind becoming the predominant forms of new energy generation in the country, the IRA is going to vastly speed up the transition of the transportation sector to electric, moving much of the supply chain and manufacturing for that transition to the United States in the process. There have already been announcements of about $40 billion for fifteen battery manufacturing facilities in the US since the start of the year, and more is almost certainly coming. Were I a betting man, I would wager heavily that in ten years we’ll look with disgust at cars that belch smoke, and that batteries and cheap solar will have completely altered the electric grid; this act is definitely a BFD, and I couldn’t be more excited to see its effects over the coming years.
- The CHIPS Act. The CHIPS Act was overshadowed by the Infrastructure Bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, but this bill is another one to be really excited about. In the 1990s the US made about 37% of the world’s semiconductors; today that number is about 12%, with the majority of the world’s production now occurring in Asia. This $280 billion law includes $52 billion for adding chip manufacturing capacity in the United States, with most of the remaining money to be used for R&D and science programs. Again, as an engineer this type of investment seems like a smart way to spend tax dollars, and companies like Intel and Micron have already announced billions of dollars in US chip fabrication plants. Technology is the future (barring a Terminator-style robot apocalypse), so it’s good to know the jobs and facilities to build that future will be in my home country.
- Space! After massive and frustrating delays and cost overruns, the James Webb space telescope launched on Christmas day 2021, and started beaming back amazing images six months later in July 2022. As an engineering feat this telescope is absolutely mind-blowing, and much like Hubble, it will change our understanding of the universe during its operational lifetime. Meanwhile, SpaceX just launched its 48th flight this year, has put over 3500 Starlink satellites in orbit, has made re-using rockets seem routine, and their flights sending astronauts to the space station aren’t even newsworthy anymore, despite the fact that no other company, and only a handful of nations, can put humans into orbit. Not to mention their soon-to-launch Starship rocket, which will be making trips to Mars before the end of the decade. Aside from the 1960s, there has been no more exciting time in human history to be a space nerd than right now.
There’s obviously more to cheer – floating wind turbines are finally becoming a thing and will be deployed off the California coast, marine reserves in the Pacific are helping fish stocks recover, beavers are being used to fight drought and wildfires, etc, etc. There is plenty of gloom and doom out there, but the past year has left me excited about the future.
Until We Meet AgainPosted from Culver City, California at 11:53 am, September 11th, 2022
Our trip has sadly come to an end; after driving through Hilo and across the Saddle Road, we flew out of Kona and arrived at LAX at 11pm last night. It was an amazingly fun two weeks of manta rays, sea turtles, rainforests, and volcanoes.
Two days ago we made a visit to the impressive Punalu’u Black Sand Beach, luckily arriving early in the day before we had to heed any warnings about the sand notoriously being so hot that it causes first-degree burns. From there we headed to the southernmost part of the island, which is also the southernmost point in the United States, and home to strikingly pretty coastline, a huge number of horses and cows, and one particularly ornery donkey.
Our final event of the day was a late-night return trip to the Kilauea crater. We were initially turned away before the trailhead by a ranger due to crowds, but that detour turned into an opportunity to visit the Volcano House for a cocktail and viewing of the volcano from a different vantage. We returned to the trailhead about two hours later at around 9pm to hike out to the lava lake overlook, and took a few million photos of erupting lava under the full moon.
KilaueaPosted from Volcano, Big Island, Hawaii at 9:12 pm, September 8th, 2022
Last night after exploring our new rainforest retreat home we headed into Volcanoes National Park after dark to see if we could do some photography of Kilauea’s latest eruption. After a mile long hike under a nearly-full moon a portion of the horizon started glowing red, and then we emerged onto the park’s lone lookout that provides a view of the erupting vents. A surprising number of other people also made the hike at night, and my 400mm lens proved to be a popular way for the folks there to look into the crater, nearly two miles away. Spending an evening photographing an erupting volcano is a far more interesting way to pass time than my normal Wednesday night regimen.
After arriving home late last night (11pm) we slept in (6:30am), lounged around the cottage, then went back to the park to explore a few more overlooks, the Thurston Lava Tube, and the 20 mile Chain of Craters drive that travels through craters, lava fields, rain forest, and eventually emerges at the sea where the 35 year long eruption of Puʻuʻōʻō (1983-2018) covered more than 45 square miles and added 203 acres of land to Hawaii’s coast.
Living on the EdgePosted from Volcano, Big Island, Hawaii at 7:28 pm, September 7th, 2022
This post is being written from a location in a rainforest a few miles east of the 1000 foot deep Kilauea crater lava lake. Coqui frogs are chirping (loudly) outside in the fern-covered trees, and we’re hanging out under soft lights in a wooden cottage with a wraparound deck. I did something right in a past life.
When the journal last left off we had returned from our second manta ray dive. The adventures since then couldn’t compare, but it has nevertheless been fun. We took a lounge day to rest up, during which I snorkeled with sea turtles a few times in water with limited visibility, so while they were the most chill turtles I’ve ever been around (one kept moving closer to me as he grazed on algae, until I finally had to get out of his way), the videos don’t do the experience justice. While celebrating with drinks and snacks at sunset we looked out in the water and saw two small (six foot) mantas cruising the shallows, apparently drawn in by plankton that were attracted to the hotel’s lights. Their wingtips kept popping out of the water as they looped around in water that didn’t look deep enough to support such a large fish, obviously enjoying their dinner.
Today we left the Kona area and headed south around the island towards Volcano Village. We were tipped off to an epic snorkel location, so after a visit to the Heavenly Hawaiian coffee plantation we drove down to the coast and jumped in the water, and were almost immediately greeted by a four foot moray who surprisingly swam around, fully visible, for several minutes; they are almost always tucked into crevices with only their heads sticking out, so seeing one out in the water for such a long time was special. The rest of the snorkel was great, too, with lava and coral combining to create an underwater metropolis of fish.
We made a very brief stop at Kilauea on the way here, but had to rush in order to checkin, so we’re returning to hopefully take some nighttime photos of the current eruption, provided there aren’t too many people with the same plan already there.
Manta-festingPosted from Kona, Big Island, Hawaii at 5:29 pm, September 6th, 2022
Our second day-of-much-scuba took place yesterday, and it started in spectacular fashion with a tiger shark cruising the harbor. The divemasters immediately announced that we’d be diving with the shark (“don’t worry, they never attack divers, just don’t stay on the surface or splash around or break eye contact if she’s swimming towards you.”). Upon descending the shark was nowhere to be found (not at all unnerving to know that you’re sharing the water with a twelve foot tiger shark), but it was still a really good dive, with eels and octopus aplenty. The second dive of the morning was also shark free, and we surfaced to a boat that wouldn’t start, so we ended up getting towed back to the harbor by the same Navy SEAL boat that we snorkeled from yesterday.
The evening dive was a return to manta ray paradise, and we went in with low expectations after Friday’s extravaganza. Our fears of a less spectacular evening diminished immediately after jumping in the water when we saw a manta slowly gliding through the water below us. Upon arriving at the “campfire” a half dozen mantas were already circling, and if it’s possible I think this dive exceeded our experience on Friday. “Lisa” kept buzzing us an inch overhead, and several other mantas whose names I lost track of circled, did 360 degree loops, and otherwise kept us enthralled for the full forty-five minutes that we were allowed to stay underwater. This was definitely one of my favorite dives of all time, and both Audrey and I would do it again in a heartbeat if we ever return to this island.
The Night of Many MantasPosted from Kailua-Kona, Hawaii at 10:38 pm, September 4th, 2022
I’m doing a poor job of writing daily entries, so here’s another catch-up of our time on the Big Island thus far.
We arrived on Thursday, and booked a full day of scuba diving for Friday. The two morning dives were fun but mostly uneventful – a few sea turtles, a bunch of morays, tons of reef fish. The evening dive, however, was the one we’d been looking forward to. At sunset we were moored near the airport, and the divemasters gave us instructions before we descended forty feet into darkness. Immediately two huge rays were gliding over us, and as we settled into our place around the underwater “campfire” of dive lights, more and more giant manta rays began appearing. For the next forty-five minutes we were treated to a show with a cast of over twenty different mantas, some of which were nearly sixteen feet across. Having giant rays glide by close enough to touch (which we didn’t of course, although the rays bumped into people on multiple occasions) was a magical way to spend an hour. After getting out of the water we were told that the average night sees 2-3 mantas present, so we got an amazing show.
Our next day we had scheduled a pelagic snorkel, where we headed out to deep water looking for sharks, whales, or whatever might be around. The company we booked through initially had boat issues, so they re-booked us with Wild Hawaii Ocean Adventures, and we somehow found ourselves heading out to sea at 9am aboard an 11m long Navy SEAL assault vessel, cruising in mile deep water looking for sharks to swim with. Sadly it seems we had used up our good karma with the mantas, so our four hour adventure did not include any big animals, but we did get to do some short snorkels in both shallow and deep water, and cruising around at 35 mph in a fast attack boat is not the worst way to spend a morning. Finishing up our 48 hours of activities, we closed out the night with a luau at the resort, where I ate and drank enough to last for several meals.
Today was a rest day, and after a late (6:30am) wakeup we lounged before doing a loop up to Hawi and Waimea, where we had a great view of the summit of 13,796 foot Mauna Kea volcano, as well as some amazing coastline views.
Island HoppingPosted from Kailua-Kona, Hawaii at 8:40 am, September 1st, 2022
Yesterday, after waking up and feeding the koi with Audrey, I picked up Aaron and we snorkeled with the world’s friendliest butterflyfish and a tiny eel for just over an hour before heading back to the hotel for a trip down the lazy river, ten rides of the waterslide (the kids were mostly not upset to have to share with grownups), and a loop around the saltwater lagoon. After failing to act our age all day I took Aaron home, and then the day finished with Audrey and me enjoying a fancy dinner at sunset.
Today I got up to see the sunrise, came back to wake Audrey up for breakfast, and now we’re off for one last chance to feed the koi before heading to the airport for our next adventure after five excellent days in Kauai.
The Garden IslandPosted from Poipu, Kauai, Hawaii at 7:41 pm, August 30th, 2022
My parents are back in Kauai for their biennial trip, and Audrey, Aaron and me are here to join them. Today is day four of our trip, so I’ve obviously been terrible about writing journal entries. To remedy that, here’s a recap of the trip so far:
- Day one saw us arrive and purchase obscene quantities of seared Ahi from the Koloa Fish Market. If you ever visit Kauai, put this place on your list, the Ahi is ridiculously good. From there we checked into our hotel and I spent more time in the lazy river and waterslide than is generally acceptable for a man in his forties.
- On day two we jumped in the sea to do some snorkeling over at the reef near the Beach House restaurant. There was a bit of current parallel to the coast, and I made the unfortunate decision to exit the water onto some rocks rather than fighting the current back to our entry point; I’ve got a few new battle scars on my foot, hand and ribs to show for it, but we nevertheless had fun seeing an array of fish including an oriental flying gurnard that Audrey spotted. My parents arrived in the evening after a delayed flight and a myriad of other misadventures, so we joined them for rum drinks at sunset to help them forget their troubles.
- Day three Audrey joined me for a morning scuba, leaving my parents to enjoy the massive breakfast buffet that is included in our hotel rate; my dad seemed to at least temporarily forget about the trip’s problems when faced with an omelette bar and a few dozen other breakfast choices. The currents were strong on our first dive but we still saw a few sharks, many turtles, and a bunch of other neat critters. After a rough surface interval that saw a couple of divers returning their breakfasts we jumped back into the water at Sheraton Caverns, which I previously referred to as “sea turtle wonderland“. That moniker held true again, as we saw dozens of turtles resting in the collapsed lava tubes as we swam around.
- Today was an opportunity to go on an adventure with my brother, so based on a recommendation from the dive master we set off for the Nu’alolo trail, a 7.5 mile round trip that descended from the forests above Waimea Canyon down to the turret-like buttes of the Napali Coast, two thousand feet above the Pacific. We’re pretty sure “Nu’alolo” is Hawaiian for “slippery mud”, but the views at the end were definitely worth it.
2022 is gonna be better, right?Posted from Culver City, California at 10:32 pm, January 31st, 2022
Continuing my questionable tradition of making bad predictions about the coming year, here are the 14th annual yearly predictions. As always, have a look at my horrendous track record before you go out and invest your savings based on anything suggested below.
- In the 2022 midterms, Democrats will keep the Senate, gaining between 1-3 seats. It’s a bad election environment for Democrats, but they have a favorable Senate map. There are 14 Democratic Senators up for reelection while Republicans are defending 20 seats. While a state like Georgia may flip Republican, Democrats have decent pickup opportunities in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
- Another election prediction, Republicans will regain the House, gaining 20-30 seats. Between redistricting, a history of losses by the President’s party in midterms, and a tough election environment, it looks like a bad year for House Democrats.
- SpaceX will have a successful orbital test of their new Starship vehicle, but won’t successfully land the vehicle by the end of the year. I think it’s going to take them a few tries to get a vehicle to orbit and back, and the FAA might slow down the cadence of launches, but if they can launch at least three tests I think one will successfully get to space and make it back to the surface, even if the “surface” means a soft landing out on the ocean.
- A viable Facebook competitor is finally going to emerge. This prediction is more of a wish rather than something I feel confident will happen, but Facebook is in the doghouse with users and regulators, so there has never been a better time for someone else to launch a competing social network. We’ve had almost two decades to figure out how people use social networks, so whatever comes next can take those learnings to create something vastly better – imagine if instead of just being able to click the “surprised face” emoji when someone posts a picture of their breakfast, you could also easily use your social network to get a job, find a date, or meet an exercise buddy?
- Median home prices will decline 5-10 percent by the end of the year. Median home prices are at $408,100 for Q4 2021, a slight dip from Q3, and as interest rates rise and construction costs are less affected by supply chain bottlenecks it seems like they’ll continue to decline and return to where they were at the start of 2021.
- President Biden’s Build Back Better bill will pass in some form this year. If Democrats will capitulate to Joe Manchin’s demands they can pass something, and “we passed a bunch legislation addressing health care and climate change, and if you elect more Democrats we’ll be able to do even more” is the argument I’d want to be making if I was insane enough to be a politician.
- Tesla will face lawsuits or otherwise be forced to issue refunds for its delays in delivering on its “full self driving” package. Since 2016 Tesla has been selling a “full self driving” package, and every year since then Elon Musk has been saying that they were a year away from delivering it. Tesla has created some incredible technology and deserves a ton of credit for their vehicles, but charging customers thousands of dollars for a feature that was promised but not delivered will finally catch up with them.
- COVID will fade into the background and life will return to normal once the Omicron wave subsides. After a year of waiting for a vaccine, followed by a year of people not getting that vaccine, the Omicron variant will finally be the catalyst that ends this pandemic. Omicron is so contagious that pretty much everyone will at least be exposed to it, and the combination of vaccine immunity and natural immunity will finally get us through this virus. I’m basing this prediction on numbers from South Africa, where case rates have declined precipitously from their early-December peak.
- Amazon is going to announce a shipping service to compete with UPS and Fedex. Amazon already delivers millions of packages each day, so leveraging that infrastructure to do customer shipping seems like an easy win. Amazon has plenty of convenient dropoff locations (lockers, stores, etc), which eliminates the cost of sending a driver to someone’s house for pickups, and they clearly know how to do 1-2 day delivery, so this seems like an area where Amazon could charge less than competitors and still make a hefty profit.
- It is going to be a wild offseason for NFL quarterbacks. There are vacancies in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh, a few big name QBs seem disgruntled, and there aren’t a lot of highly-touted prospects in the draft, so the 2022 season will start with a lot of new faces throwing the ball. I’ll predict that there will be monster trades for at least two of these three: Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr. I’ll also predict that despite the hot market, Deshaun Watson is going to stay unemployed as long as he remains in legal trouble, and that the Browns are sticking with Baker.
- The Ford F-150 Lightning will run away with Motortrend’s 2022 Truck of the Year award. I’m incredibly impressed with Ford’s electrification efforts, and think that they are going to surprise a lot of people over the next decade.
- This year will finally see major progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel’s new president has expressed a desire to make progress, the Biden administration wants to see progress, so this will finally be the year the talks produce meaningful results.
- At least three more major newspapers will follow the Chicago Sun Times and become non-profits. In addition to the Sun Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer became a non-profit in 2016, and the Tampa Bay Times has been a non-profit for decades, but 2022 will be the year that more foundations and donors step in to save the dying local news industry. There is an increasing public awareness of the need for accurate and unbiased local news, and rather than seeing more newsrooms die, this year will see the NPR business model applied to print journalism.
- 2022 will see video game streaming become a major selling point of streaming services like Amazon Prime, Netflix, and Apple TV. Tech companies have been paying huge sums to stream movies and develop TV shows, but have thus far mostly just dabbled in video games. With streaming hardware containing more computing power than older game consoles, and vast libraries of vintage games available, this year will see a massive push to put game libraries in everyone’s TV set, and tech companies will start buying up game studios so that we can all play Mario Kart and Angry Birds using our Prime subscription.
- One final prediction: the Browns will win the AFC North and will win at least 11 regular season games. There, I’ve jinxed them, and they’ll definitely go 2-15 now, but they’ve got all of the necessary pieces, and if they can’t win with this team then they’ll probably have to start over in 2023 with a new quarterback, and the universe can’t hate Cleveland enough to put everyone through that again, can it?
And that’s it. It is shockingly difficult to come up with fifteen predictions for the new year, but for some twisted reason I still enjoy doing them. We can all reconvene in twelve months, at which time we can recap how embarrassingly incorrect these guesses about 2022 turned out to be.
2021 Predictions RecapPosted from Culver City, California at 9:35 am, January 16th, 2022
For reasons that even I don’t understand, each year I like to make predictions about the coming year and then revisit those predictions twelve months later to see how wrong I got things. Here’s the recap of the 2021 predictions:
- The COVID vaccine rollout will go smoothly once the new administration settles in, and the economy will rebound quickly once vaccination rates hit critical mass, causing the current unemployment rate of 6.7% to drop below 4.0% by the end of the year.
CORRECT. The unemployment rate hit 3.9% in December, and even critics seem to agree that the vaccine rollout has been smooth. The thing I failed to predict was that a year later only 62.9% of the population would be fully vaccinated against COVID and opposition to vaccination requirements would become increasingly mainstream; I’m not looking forward to future battles over whether or not to continue requiring vaccination for polio and diphtheria.
- At least one of the following Senators will leave the Republican party this year and begin caucusing with Democrats: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, or Pat Toomey.
WRONG. This prediction was a longshot, but I’m a little surprised that someone like Murkowski or Collins didn’t jump ship. Both are on the fringe of their party and could win re-election as Democrats, and either of them could have replaced Joe Manchin as the swing vote for the Build Back Better bill, securing just about anything they wanted in return for helping to get that bill across the finish line.
- SpaceX will not conduct an orbital test of their new Starship rocket, but will be on track to do so in 2022.
CORRECT. Obligatory comment: SPACE IS SO AWESOME AND THIS IS THE BEST TIME IN HISTORY FOR ADVANCEMENTS IN SPACEFLIGHT TECHNOLOGY AND I AM SO HAPPY. That bit out of the way, SpaceX was launching test flights of its new vehicle seemingly every few weeks earlier in the year, but after a successful sub-orbital flight in May they have been focused on building their launchpad, getting FAA approval, and constructing orbital test vehicles. The latest estimate is that we may see an orbital test in March of 2022, which is incredibly exciting given the potential of this new vehicle to economically transport humans and cargo beyond Earth.
- Rivian will begin delivery of their all-electric R1T truck before the end of the summer, and will steal some of Tesla’s thunder by winning the truck of the year award from Motor Trend.
CORRECT. Rivian’s R1T truck did indeed win Motortrend Truck of the Year, with Motortrend describing it as “the most remarkable pickup truck we’ve ever driven”. For a while it seemed like it was mostly just engineers who understood that electric vehicles weren’t just for tree huggers but were also vastly superior technology, but with Tesla, Rivian, and even Ford pumping out incredible vehicles like the electric Mustang and F-150, the rest of the world is starting to come to the same realization.
- The Browns will trade back at least twice during the 2021 NFL draft, and will end the draft with at least one extra 2022 draft pick in the third round or better.
WRONG. The Browns did pick up an extra 2022 fourth round pick, but that was their only trade back. Their first two draft picks were both named to postseason all-rookie teams, so even without trading back, the math guys still got it right. They might not win much during the season, but the Browns are perennial offseason champs.
- Americans will win at least three gold medals in the mid-distance and distance events at the Tokyo Olympics.
WRONG. Nineteen year old 800m runner Athing Mu was a true phenom, going from being a high school star in 2019 to gold medal winner in 2021, but she was America’s only gold medal winner in the mid-distance and distance events. The United States did also pick up a silver medal in the women’s steeplechase and bronze medals in the men’s 5000m, women’s 800m, and women’s marathon, but my hopes for three gold medals was unfortunately optimistic.
- The Avatar sequel will bring people back to movie theaters and will be on its way towards a top-three all-time box office showing by the time these prediction are revisited next year.
EMBARRASSINGLY WRONG. Apparently they announced in July 2020 that the Avatar 2 release date was going to be pushed back to December 2022 and I missed that news and thus made a truly awful prediction. The movie was originally supposed to come out in 2015, so after seven years of delay hopefully James Cameron finally gets this film on screens by the end of this year.
- The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will receive permanent protection, either through a national monument designation or via an act of Congress.
WRONG. The Build Back Better Act at one point included provisions that would have prevented drilling in the refuge, but that bill is currently in limbo and no other protections have been proposed. The world is trying to quit its addiction to oil, so it seems incredibly short-sighted to me to risk an amazing natural wonder for a few more barrels.
- Congress will pass bills shoring up Obamacare, addressing voting rights, and dealing with immigration, but nothing will get through the Senate related to gun control, marijuana legalization, or giving statehood to Puerto Rico and Washington DC.
WRONG. The Build Back Better Act would have shored up Obamacare but seems to be in limbo now, and Democrats continue to fail to understand that they need to pare back ambitions on voting rights and immigration so that ten Republican Senators will join them, so this prediction didn’t pan out. While it’s tempting to believe that there’s nothing that could get ten Republican votes, Republicans did vote for the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill that will be hugely transformational. Also, even though it didn’t get any Republican votes the $1.9 trillion Covid Relief bill was also a profoundly important piece of legislation that prevented massive cutbacks at the state and local government levels. While I would have preferred to see Democrats figure out how to pass legislation fixing the holes in Obamacare, pushing to mitigate climate change, etc, I’m amazed that two huge pieces of legislation that will have incredibly beneficial effects over the next ten years passed and most Democrats still seem to view the past year as a failure.
- Google will announce some sort of streaming service to compete with Netflix, leveraging its massive library of YouTube content and its expertise in AI for targeting content.
WRONG. YouTube TV apparently has between 3-4 million subscribers, which is a paltry number compared to something like Disney+ and its 118 million subscribers. I have the business sense of a rock, but it still seems to me like streaming is an area that Google should dominate, but instead year after year they are allowing other companies to become more and more entrenched while Google does almost nothing.
- 2021 will see high-speed, wireless home internet begin to displace wired home internet.
WRONG. Tortoises move slowly, glaciers move even more slowly, and then there are the telecoms. Verizon, AT&T, etc could all easily take over the home internet market from the cable companies, but apparently they plan to rollout 5G home internet at about the same time that the personal robots and flying cars arrive.
- Following Brexit, Scotland will vote for independence and will rejoin the EU.
WRONG. In my defense I admitted that this was unlikely to happen this year, but the process is even more complex than I realized, apparently requiring approval from the UK before Scotland can even put another independence vote on the ballot.
- Facebook and Twitter will take significant actions to address misinformation, threats, and bots on their networks.
WRONG. I continue to be befuddled as to how a company whose sole product is 280 character messages that their brilliant marketing department decided to call “tweets” makes money. Meanwhile Facebook seems to be in a battle with Kim Jong-Un for the top spot on the “world’s least popular” list. Still, I’ve been predicting for years that both Twitter and Facebook would finally pay a price for their shortcomings, and for years I’ve been utterly wrong, so what do I know.
- Tesla will begin production of the Tesla Semi, but will delay production of the Cybertruck to 2022.
HALF CORRECT. The Cybertruck is now supposed to arrive in 2023 (originally scheduled to launch in 2021). In January 2021 Elon Musk said the Tesla Semi would ship by the end of the year, but later in the year said it wouldn’t launch until 2023; it was originally supposed to launch in 2019. Musk has brought some truly transformational technology to market over the past decade so I probably shouldn’t criticize, but still… maybe company resources should go towards getting the current roadmap to market before announcing an initiative to create C3-PO?
- With the NBA season ending a month later than normal, most NBA players will opt out of playing in the Olympics, and as a result the USA will not win the gold or silver medal.
WRONG. While most of the major stars like Steph Curry and James Harden did end up skipping the Olympics, the USA still won a gold medal despite losing to Nigeria and Australia in their first two exhibition games, and then having their 25-game Olympic win streak broken in a loss to France in their first game in Tokyo.
The final tally for 2021: 3.5 out of 15 (23%). A result that should be terribly embarrassing, but it’s far from my worst showing ever, and the whole reason these predictions are fun to make is because I try to stay away from anything too obvious. The 2022 version should be online soon for those who like to follow along at home.
All Good Things…Posted from Culver City, California at 4:28 pm, October 1st, 2021
After a glorious twenty days we’ve returned home. Despite my best efforts, Audrey left Cleveland thinking it was awesome, and she wasn’t totally wrong – there’s new construction and crews out fixing old buildings everywhere, so it wasn’t quite the Scooby Doo ghost town that I’d sold it as.
Our last day was spent downtown so I could show off Cleveland’s former glory. We parked at the Terminal Tower to see what was once the world’s second-tallest building. We visited the Old Arcade, one of America’s earliest attempts at a mall and an incredible piece of architecture. We hit up the Cleveland Public Library to see its ornate domed ceilings. We ate lunch at one of Michael Symon‘s many Cleveland eateries. And we finished the day with an obligatory stop at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
During the past few years, vacations haven’t been as frequent as I might prefer, so having some time to disconnect completely from work has been rejuvenating. With luck, COVID will end, work will be a bit less crazy, and travel journal entries like those made over the past few weeks won’t be as rare in the future.
Cleve-landPosted from Cleveland, Ohio at 6:42 pm, September 29th, 2021
Audrey turned to me at one point today and said “Cleveland is pretty awesome”; obviously we’re hitting all of the highlights while the weather is great, and I may have to bring her back some time in February to give her a more authentic Cleveland experience.
That said, it was a pretty good day. Case Western Reserve University, my alma mater, has gotten a lot nicer since I was a student here, and I spent a couple of hours roaming the campus in the early morning. Once Audrey was awake and caffeinated I gave her a quick campus tour (“that’s the building whose roof is perfectly shaped to form twenty foot icicles in winter, forcing them to shut down the sidewalks so that no one gets impaled”) before we headed over to University Circle and the Art museum and Natural History museum.
The tour continued through Shaker Heights where I grew up. We stopped at several of my old haunts including my dad’s old church, and while the caretaker was initially suspicious of the bald weirdo claiming to be a former pastor’s kid, he eventually let us in to see the sanctuary, the first time I’ve been in the place in about twenty-five years. Our day finished with a drive through Lake View Cemetery, where a number of Cleveland luminaries including John D. Rockefeller and President James A. Garfield are buried.
I don’t have any photographs to share for the day, but we were thrilled to discover that the “Hastily Made Cleveland Tourism Video” series became a trilogy a couple of years ago when the town hosted the MLB All-Star game, enjoy: