Ryan's Journal

"My life amounts to no more than one drop in a limitless ocean. Yet what is any ocean, but a multitude of drops?" — David Mitchell

2009 Predictions Redux

Posted from Culver City, California at 9:56 pm, January 19th, 2010

About one year ago I made some predictions for 2009, first because it seemed like it might be fun if I got any right, and second because it seemed like it might be amusing how wrong I would inevitably be. Here’s the scorecard:

  1. The stock market will be close to 10,000 at the end of the year.

    The year closed at about 10,400 after opening around 9,000 and hitting a low of around 6,600, so this scores as one of my few correct predictions.

  2. By the end of 2009 everyone will know what the smart grid is.

    Failed that one. No one ever accused me of being a smart man.

  3. There will be at least two new national parks or monuments created.

    Failed again. Too bad, national parks are good things.

  4. I will schedule another big expedition-style trip.

    The whale trip was a pretty big deal, but not on the scale of something like South Georgia. Half points for this one.

  5. Chrysler is going to go out of business or be purchased; GM and Ford will keep chugging along. Another major bank will fail or be purchased.

    Chrysler was split up and is now sort of part of Fiat, so let’s say that’s three out of four. Not bad.

  6. Obama’s approval rating will drop from its current 80% levels but still remain over 60%.

    Oops. I still like him.

  7. I will run a marathon or some similar endurance race.


  8. The “buzz” in energy will be all about bio fuels and concentrated solar.

    Didn’t get the dorky prediction either.

  9. The Beatles and Garth Brooks will finally get released on iTunes. Kid Rock will not.

    Along with AC/DC these guys are all iTunes no-shows. The prediction batting average continues to drop…

  10. The Boeing 787 will not face any further delays – two years is late enough. The 747-8 will move into production on schedule.

    There were six additional months of delay for the 787. The prediction game is clearly not one of my talents…

  11. The Indians will not make the World Series. The Browns will not make the Super Bowl but will win at least seven games. The Cavs… will not be jinxed by me.

    Five wins for the Browns. That is a terribly small number.

  12. Tesla Motors will still be in business, although the Model S will be delayed until the end of 2011.

    Tesla is going strong, which is great. There’s been no recent updates on the Model S, but 2011 seems likely. I finally get another prediction right.

  13. I will still be working at DIRECTV.

    I made it through the full year before moving on to greener pastures, and since I’m doing the scoring that one counts as a correct prediction.

  14. Yahoo will be purchased or merge with someone like AOL.

    They made a deal with Microsoft, but it wasn’t a merger. Didn’t get that one.

  15. Lance Armstrong will finish in the top ten in the Tour de France but won’t be on the podium.

    He got third; I was half right.

  16. I will manage to make at least two journal entries a month, doubling my pitiful performance of 2008.

    Clearly I’m bad at more than just making predictions.

It was fun making the (wrong) guesses. Predictions for 2010 will follow soon.

2 responses to “2009 Predictions Redux”

  1. Brilliant stuff!
    > The Indians will not make the World Series.
    I am guessing you are not talking about either India or Cricket here :). If you are, I’m afraid your prediction is clearly wrong!

    1. i can only make incorrect guesses about things which i should have some knowledge. cricket and indians (dot, not feather) fall into the “not knowledgeable” category, so your accusation of incorrect predicting is invalid, not to mention hurtful to my very sensitive feelings.

      that said, i know enough about cricket to know that they have tea breaks, so i predict that if india is in the world series of cricket then at some point they will stop playing and gather around a table to drink tea. the nfl does not have tea breaks, which is an easy way to tell the two sports apart if you happen to turn on the tv without knowing whether you’re watching cricket or football.

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