Ryan's Journal

After a truly dreadful job of making predictions for 2009, here’s the 2010 version. A psychic I’m clearly not, but they say even a monkey at a typewriter would eventually bang out a beautiful sonnet if he stuck with it long enough, so here goes:

1. SpaceX will launch their Falcon 9 rocket successfully in March or April. This prediction comes from the fact that a) I want them to succeed, and 2) they’ve already put two smaller rockets in orbit so hopefully they’ve got the hang of it. They’ve got five Falcon 9 launches on their manifest for 2010, but I’m gonna guess that two will be all that make it up this year.
2. Despite Democrats losing their 60th Senate seat in the Massachusetts special election there will still be some sort of health care bill passed this year. With control of Congress and the White House it seems supremely foolish that the Democrats would campaign without having passed any major legislation. “Re-elect me, even though I didn’t do much” just isn’t that catchy of a slogan.
3. Tiger Woods will be golfing again in time for the Masters, will win at least one major championship, and at least five tournaments.
4. The iPhone is going to be available from carriers besides AT&T by mid-year. Apple is able to charge higher prices because they offer a great product with great service, and based on my own experience AT&T’s network isn’t up to their standards.
5. The stock market will end the year around 11,500. It’s at 10,200 today, and while I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop, the economy can’t stay bad forever.
6. NASA’s ARES rocket program will be canceled or scaled back to the point where it will no longer be a shuttle replacement. I’m a big space dork, but with budget issues and private companies now offering space transport I think NASA is going to be redefined as a research and robotic exploration organization, and not an agency that puts people and cargo in space.
7. The Beatles and Garth Brooks will start selling their music on iTunes. I’m gonna make this prediction every year until it eventually happens. And if Kid Rock and AC/DC are reading this, call Steve Jobs and tell him to make the magic happen ’cause I’m not buying CDs anymore.
8. The Browns will finish at .500 or better. I may be the only person on Earth who likes Eric Mangini, but I think the guy just needs some time to get the team he wants. I suspect Brady Quinn will remain the quarterback, but that one isn’t going on record as a prediction.
9. I’m going to run a marathon. There is absolutely no reason to believe that I’ll actually sack-up and do this other than the fact that I’d like to get it crossed off of the to-do list.
10. The 2010 elections won’t change Congress significantly. After the recent special election in Massachusetts this prediction may be a spectacular failure, but ten months is a long time in politics and I’m betting things may have bottomed out. I’ll say the Democrats will have 57 Senate seats (plus-or-minus one) and 240 House members (plus-or-minus five) when it’s all over.
11. Tesla will IPO and announce the opening of a plant in Downey. The plant will break ground, but full Model-S production will slip from 2011 to 2012.
12. Despite recent protests, the political situation in Iran won’t change in 2010.
13. Google will partner with someone to ship a low-cost, Google branded PC running Google apps and the Google operating system. This prediction might be premature, but I suspect that’s something they’re eventually trying to do.
14. Apple will be on the verge of announcing an Apple television product. They sell movies through iTunes and games for the iPod, so it seems like only a matter of time before they launch an all-in-one device that is a TV / video game / media center. I am going to want one when it does get announced.
15. China will announce plans to sell cars abroad. They seem to be following the exact same roadmap as Japan, first developing manufacturing infrastructure, then improving quality, then become industry leaders. Given the fact that fire extinguishers are supposedly included in most domestic cars sold in China, this is another prediction that might be a few years early.
16. It will be another bad hurricane year. There were five category five hurricanes in 2005, but there have only been two since. With El Nino supposedly back, this looks like another year for big storms.
17. Finally, I will make at least two journal entries a month. It’s gonna happen in 2010, really.

Check back this time next year to mock me for being completely wrong about all things 2010. For those who can’t wait a year to begin the mocking, the comments link below is there for your immediate gratification.

About one year ago I made some predictions for 2009, first because it seemed like it might be fun if I got any right, and second because it seemed like it might be amusing how wrong I would inevitably be. Here’s the scorecard:

1. The stock market will be close to 10,000 at the end of the year.

   The year closed at about 10,400 after opening around 9,000 and hitting a low of around 6,600, so this scores as one of my few correct predictions.

2. By the end of 2009 everyone will know what the smart grid is.

   Failed that one. No one ever accused me of being a smart man.

3. There will be at least two new national parks or monuments created.

   Failed again. Too bad, national parks are good things.

4. I will schedule another big expedition-style trip.

   The whale trip was a pretty big deal, but not on the scale of something like South Georgia. Half points for this one.

5. Chrysler is going to go out of business or be purchased; GM and Ford will keep chugging along. Another major bank will fail or be purchased.

   Chrysler was split up and is now sort of part of Fiat, so let’s say that’s three out of four. Not bad.

6. Obama’s approval rating will drop from its current 80% levels but still remain over 60%.

   Oops. I still like him.

7. I will run a marathon or some similar endurance race.

   Nope.

8. The “buzz” in energy will be all about bio fuels and concentrated solar.

   Didn’t get the dorky prediction either.

9. The Beatles and Garth Brooks will finally get released on iTunes. Kid Rock will not.

   Along with AC/DC these guys are all iTunes no-shows. The prediction batting average continues to drop…

10. The Boeing 787 will not face any further delays – two years is late enough. The 747-8 will move into production on schedule.

    There were six additional months of delay for the 787. The prediction game is clearly not one of my talents…

11. The Indians will not make the World Series. The Browns will not make the Super Bowl but will win at least seven games. The Cavs… will not be jinxed by me.

    Five wins for the Browns. That is a terribly small number.

12. Tesla Motors will still be in business, although the Model S will be delayed until the end of 2011.

    Tesla is going strong, which is great. There’s been no recent updates on the Model S, but 2011 seems likely. I finally get another prediction right.

13. I will still be working at DIRECTV.

    I made it through the full year before moving on to greener pastures, and since I’m doing the scoring that one counts as a correct prediction.

14. Yahoo will be purchased or merge with someone like AOL.

    They made a deal with Microsoft, but it wasn’t a merger. Didn’t get that one.

15. Lance Armstrong will finish in the top ten in the Tour de France but won’t be on the podium.

    He got third; I was half right.

16. I will manage to make at least two journal entries a month, doubling my pitiful performance of 2008.

    Clearly I’m bad at more than just making predictions.

It was fun making the (wrong) guesses. Predictions for 2010 will follow soon.