Ryan's Journal

"My life amounts to no more than one drop in a limitless ocean. Yet what is any ocean, but a multitude of drops?" — David Mitchell

Meet the Parents

Posted from Culver City, California at 9:08 pm, June 28th, 2014

Three days left in June and a three-journal-entries-a-month goal, but as the saying goes “if it weren’t for the last minute, nothing would ever get done.” Here’s the quick recap of the month:

  • Ma and Pa came to LA for a visit over Father’s Day weekend. The Skipper wanted to see fossils, so we went to the La Brea Tar Pits so that he could pretend to be a paleontologist while taking in all of the dire wolves, mastodons, and saber tooth tigers (RAWR!). Lunch was from a truck serving lobster rolls, and then it was off to dinner at the Saddle Peak Lodge. Ma got to enjoy the fancy settings, Pa got to enjoy elk and venison, and I think everyone went home happy.
  • I’m down to my last four days of work with bodybuilding.com before taking a break for the great African adventure. My last trip out to Boise happened a couple of weeks ago, and beers were drunk, board games were played, and Grant very nearly landed a front flip on the trampoline. Vintage arcade games at Grinkers rounded out a fun work visit.
  • Prior to the visit from the parents there was a disco bowling birthday bash that involved many shenanigans. Watching the (drunk) birthday boy go through an entire dance routine prior to releasing the ball directly into the gutter is an experience that one does not easily forget; John Travolta has nothing on Brett McDermid.

The Skipper at the La Brea Tar Pits

A saber-toothed tiger, a giant sloth, and a happy Skipper.

Mastodon at the La Brea Tar Pits

I would totally ride a mastodon if I could.

Hollywood Nights

Posted from Culver City, California at 6:52 pm, May 31st, 2014

During breakfast this morning with Audrey, the realization that I’ve now been living in LA for about ten years hit. I arrived permanently in August 2005, but was doing contract work at Warner Brothers on and off from December 2002 onwards. That means that I’ve spent more of my life in LA than in any other place besides the Mistake by the Lake Cleveland.

LA is a city that I never would have picked to be the place I would settle down, but I’m tremendously lucky to get to live here. What other city has something that compares to the Hollywood Bowl? Or contains the world’s largest known deposit of Ice Age fossils? While living here I can walk to the ocean to see all manner of sea critters, and enjoy a seemingly inexhaustible number of cool restaurants and cultural activities. LA isn’t without its downsides, but it’s also a town with far more unique and exciting places to discover than almost anywhere else in the world.

Not to say that I’ll be here forever, but so long as Audrey and I do live here there is plenty to appreciate and be grateful for.

The Shuttle Endeavour at the California Science Center

I get to share a city with the coolest machine ever built by man. SPACESHIPS ARE AWESOME AND I LOVE THEM AND THEY GO TO SPACE AND ROCKET SHIPS RULE!!!!

Red-shouldered hawk

While it’s obviously not a hotspot for wildlife, we still get to count everything from hawks to sea lions to mountain lions as our neighbors.

Ryan and mastodons at the La Brea Tar Pits

Yeah, that’s right, mastodons and tar pits. It’s OK to be jealous. Photo by Audrey.

Headlines

Posted from Culver City, California at 10:54 pm, May 29th, 2014

Four headlines of note this week:

  • SpaceX announced version two of their Dragon space capsule, this one capable of carrying astronauts. They are on track to be carrying people into space by 2017, and this new capsule is both reusable and capable of landing almost anywhere using maneuvering thrusters. The goal is to be able to fly it back to the launch pad, refuel it, strap it to a rocket, and send it into space again, thus greatly reducing costs and putting all of us space nerds one step closer to a trip into orbit. For anyone still reading who isn’t an engineering geek, this announcement may be considered one of the big moments in the advancement of technology in a few decades.
  • A $1 billion restoration of the Los Angeles River (yes, there is one) was announced today. LA’s preferred restoration option was approved by the Army Corps of Engineers, and eleven miles of concrete will soon be removed and returned to a more natural state. I’m torn on this one – any time we can keep something natural, or fix damage that has been done, I’m a fan, but $1 billion could have been used to restore vastly larger and more important wetlands elsewhere (example). That said, bringing some nature back to the concrete jungle of LA will be a welcome change.
  • In more controversial news, the EPA is about to unveil serious efforts to combat climate change by setting CO2 limits on power plants. It’s highly doubtful that the EPA’s proposals are the best solution to the issue of climate change, but since the Senate killed the Cap & Trade bill in 2010, direct executive action has become the only viable option for addressing a very serious problem. With any luck, once these rules go into effect it will spur Congress to debate a better solution that does more to address the problem while producing less chaos in the marketplace, much like what was originally intended with the 2009 Cap & Trade bill.
  • Apple holds their Worldwide Developer Conference next week, where they are expected to announce a framework for integrating iPads and iPhones with home devices like lights, security systems, etc. They may also announce their rumored health-related watch, and while I’m skeptical about it, if anyone can make a device that promotes healthy living it’s Apple, and the thought of people having something on their wrist that encourages exercise, good eating, and other good behavior while also notifying them of serious health issues, that seems like a big win.

That’s a lot going on all at once, and even without a pressing deadline to get in three journal entries before the end of the month, they seemed significant enough to record for posterity. Ten years from now I’ll either read this while looking at my Apple health-monitoring device and watching the latest space tourist launch into orbit, or I’ll do neither of those things and wonder how I could have ever thought these announcements were significant 🙂

Squirrels

Posted from Culver City, California at 9:18 pm, May 27th, 2014

In addition to the birds we’ve got at least three squirrels that have made themselves at home in the backyard. One is recognizable for his acrobatics – if I ever get a video of him doing handsprings, twirls and rolls across the lawn I’m pretty sure it will be a Youtube sensation – while the other two are notable mainly for their spirited wrestling matches on the roof of Audrey’s office.

For Christmas my mom gave me a seed wreath that I’ve only just gotten around to hanging, and while the birds have ignored it completely, the little grey guys are the happiest they’ve ever been. I initially had it in a spot that they couldn’t quite get to (their attempts rivaled Wile E. Coyote for daring and creativity), but after it became clear that the birds weren’t interested I moved it to be slightly more accessible to the furry fellows, and now squirrels hanging vertically from their hind legs is a regular site in our backyard.

Grey squirrel

I made a deal with the squirrels that they could eat as much as they wanted from the wreath made of nuts, but only if they did Batman impersonations; they complied.

Grey squirrel

After eating insanely large quantities, the ability to move is apparently temporarily lost and the squirrel’s only option is the post-meal catatonic belly flop.

Planning the Odyssey

Posted from Boise, Idaho at 6:39 pm, April 30th, 2014

It’s a very old adage that you don’t appreciate what you have until it’s gone, and planning the trip to Madagascar has reinforced that dictum as most of the internet planning tools we now take for granted are of no use, making things significantly more challenging. I’ve instead found myself working with middlemen, wiring money via Western Union, navigating various bank transfers, and doing my best to email in French, despite twenty years having passed since I last used it during high school language classes (note: those classes ended with my teacher taking me aside to tell me that I was an embarrassment as a language student, and she was not incorrect).

Luckily most of the places we want to visit in Madagascar at least have a web site or a mention on Tripadvisor, so while it sometimes takes several days of contacting the hotel owner and a variety of travel agencies in order to get someone to finally respond with information about price and availability, after countless hours of research, emails, phone calls, etc, we’ve managed to ensure that we have transportation and lodging for most of our time in Madagascar. “Ensure” is of course a relative term – in several cases I’ve wired not-insignificant sums of money to a person I’ve never met, and while I’m not too worried, it’s still an act of faith that they’ll be there with a car, boat, or hotel room at the place and time we’ve arranged. Travel is always an adventure, and this one may be far more unpredictable than most. In addition, I’ve quickly learned that any time you try to send money to someone in Madagascar, whether via bank transfer, credit card, or Western Union, alarm bells and flashing red lights go off in the fraud departments, so I’ve now become quite well-versed in talking to the bank and credit card folks when they follow-up to alert me to all of the dubious activities taking place on my accounts.

With most of the planning now complete, the final itinerary looks like it will be Turkey for two weeks, Tanzania and Kenya for almost four weeks (with the Cheesemans, so at least for that part of the trip there won’t be any worries about travel arrangements), a week in Kruger National Park in South Africa (Etosha National Park in Namibia didn’t work out, unfortunately), ten days in Cape Town with Audrey, then we’ll be spending four weeks in Madagascar. All told I’ll be gone for just shy of three months, so this will be the longest adventure I’ve ever been fortunate enough to undertake. In six months I will no longer be able to say that I haven’t seen the Blue Mosque, a wild lion, the sunset over the Serengeti, or a dancing lemur, and life will definitely be better as a result.

Carry On

Posted from Boise, Idaho at 8:07 pm, April 29th, 2014

Here’s a riveting recap of the life of Ryan over the past two months:

  • At the end of February / beginning of March I made a quick pilgrimage up to the Bay Area to see Aaron and the folks. Good times were had as always, with much ping pong, the Napa Valley regional cornhole championships (which I officially lost, although there were some questionable circumstances), delicious prawn tacos, and a chance to enjoy Aaron’s new casa in Livermore.
  • Earlier this month Audrey, her LA Times and fellow-Alto friend Martha, Meghen (another Alto), and I visited the Queen Mary in Long Beach for a performance by the Christ Church Cathedral Choir. I thought the music was OK, but getting to see it on a historic 1930s passenger liner was pretty awesome. Before the show started I had an hour to roam around, re-enacting scenes from Titanic, although sadly the bow was roped off so I had to forgo “I’m the king of the world!” and instead settle for “You jump, I jump” at the stern, and “Full speed ahead Mr. Murdoch” in the bridge. The Queen Mary is another addition to the list of good things about LA™.
  • In medical news, after more than two years of waiting for Obamacare’s rules against declining coverage due to pre-existing conditions, I finally switched insurance and visited an actual sports medicine doctor at UCLA. Two weeks later I was inside of an MRI medicine-tube-spaceship-time-machine getting 3-D pictures of the inside of my knee taken; we totally live in the future. I’m meeting a physical therapist this weekend and have a follow-up with the doctor in a couple of weeks, so hopefully soon it will be clear what exactly causes my knee to throw a tantrum and swell up to impressive size whenever I try to run, and with luck I’ll be able to resume the one sport I’m good at again some time in the near future. I know it’s a touchy issue with some people, but for a self-employed person like myself Obamacare has proven to be a massive, massive improvement over the former system.
  • In other news Audrey and I continue planning the grand adventure for this July-October; more details will likely follow in the next journal entry.
  • Last of all, we’ve now lived a mile from the Marina for over two years, and this past weekend we finally went sailing. Audrey’s friend has a decent-sized boat and invited us to join him, his wife, and their friend for a short afternoon on the water, which was a great way to spend a few hours. At one point he told me to take the wheel and just drive around the Marina for a bit, either not realizing or not caring that nearly all of my boat navigating experience was done holding a paddle. Luckily, despite some tight turns and various individuals in kayaks or other rentals criss-crossing all over the place with no realization that a novice captain was doing his best to avoid running them down, everyone emerged alive and well. After Adam again took over we raised the sail for a short jaunt outside of the breakwall to enjoy some decent-sized surf and the company of dolphins.

Ryan sailing in Marina del Rey

I dominated at sailing straight, but turns in the tight confines of the Marina were terrifying. Photo by Audrey.

Blood Moon!!!!

Posted from Culver City, California at 11:31 pm, April 16th, 2014

The natural world is astounding. If there is a Creator, the fact that we encounter mind-blowing phenomenon on a daily basis reflects an infinite intelligence and master artist who set the universe in motion. The recent blood moon is yet another example – who knew that the already-amazing full moon would turn red during an eclipse? The cosmos is awesome.

Full moon, pre-eclipse

The full moon, before the evil had yet begun.

Full moon, partial eclipse

A scene very similar to this one took place during 2010: The Odyssey Continues, after which Jupiter exploded and aliens took over. That did not happen during this lunar eclipse.

Blood moon

Blood moon!!!!

Adventure

Posted from Culver City, California at 9:26 pm, March 31st, 2014

“Boredom, Tyler. Boredom, that’s what’s wrong. And how do you beat boredom? Adventure, Tyler. Adventure!” — Never Cry Wolf

This journal started in 2002 as a way to chronicle an epic, three month adventure through Alaska and Northern Canada. Since then there have been additional amazing trips captured on these pages – Antarctica on an ice breaker, South Georgia island on a 90 foot yacht, the Galapagos on a motor yacht, and even some trips that didn’t involve boats. Some of these journeys were done on my own, others with friends and family, but all had a profound impact.

The next odyssey is scheduled to start in late July and last through early October, with Audrey joining for the latter half. The route is still being fully fleshed out, but the trail looks like it’s going to lead through Turkey, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia, with Audrey then joining for ten days in South Africa followed by a month in Madagascar.

I’m fortunate to be in a position to be able to break from the day-to-day routine and head out to experience the world, and can’t wait to see what insights this next journey brings. Three-and-a-half months and counting.

Legos for Grown-ups

Posted from Culver City, California at 9:41 pm, March 30th, 2014

While the East Span of the Bay Bridge is finally operational, there are a bunch of other projects going on in California that the engineer in me continually follows up on. While I may be the only one interested, it’s fun to re-read these entries a few years later, so here’s a status report on a few of them:

  • Transbay Center – This San Francisco project is essentially building the Grand Central Station of the West Coast, a $4.5 billion development that will bring together eleven different transit agencies and eventually include Caltrain service in downtown, and (theoretically) high-speed rail. Shockingly the project is mostly on schedule, with most of the below-ground work done and the above ground work set to start this summer. Completion is scheduled for Summer 2017.
  • Subway to the Sea & Exposition Line – Despite Beverly Hills doing its best to derail the $4 billion subway project, one of LA’s busiest traffic corridors might soon have a subway, and people on the West Side will actually be able to get to the rest of the city without spending an hour in traffic. As a bonus, subway excavations are unearthing huge caches of Ice Age fossils. Meanwhile, the first phase of the Exposition light rail line has already exceeded its 2020 ridership projections, with the second phase to Santa Monica on schedule for a 2015 opening. It’s ridiculous that America’s second-largest city has such terrible mass transit, but things are improving rapidly.
  • California High Speed Rail – Caveat: high speed rail is something that should absolutely be built to connect America’s cities, as is done throughout the rest of the world. However, the $68 billion California high speed rail project has missed every deadline so far and has no viable solution for moving forward. I don’t envy the people trying to make it work – they are saddled with a set of difficult and often conflicting constraints that are set by law, a political environment in which financing is uncertain, and everyone from Congress members to farmers trying to use whatever legal options are available to delay or kill the project – but more than five years after approval there is absolutely no excuse for not having a workable plan. Killing the project now probably means it will be another decade before anything new could be proposed, but that might be better than building it poorly, and in the interim it might be possible for a less ambitious (and probably more profitable) route from LA to San Diego, or LA to Las Vegas, to be built and prove the viability of such a system.
  • Farmer’s Field – If anyone could bring an NFL team to Los Angeles and redevelop a huge section of downtown with a stadium and other venues it would be AEG, and most of the approval for this $1.2 billion project is in place. However, with no NFL team ready to move, the continued redevelopment of downtown Los Angeles is on indefinite hold, and in the interim parking lots and unused office buildings fill an area that should be a centerpiece of the LA area.

I’ve always been a big nerd when it comes to huge construction projects, and these four projects are particularly exciting ones since they all have the potential to dramatically change the regions in which they are built.

Kraftwerk

Posted from Culver City, California at 8:59 pm, March 24th, 2014

As part of my ongoing arts and culture education, Audrey took me to see Kraftwerk at Disney Hall last week. I know nothing about electronic music, but apparently for someone who is a fan of the genre seeing Kraftwerk is like an engineer meeting Nikola Tesla or Wernher von Braun, i.e. you bow down while chanting “we’re not worthy” when they appear. The band was doing eight shows over four nights, each show featuring a different album played in full along with a “best of” set, and tickets had sold out in a matter of minutes.

I went in knowing nothing about what was going to happen, beyond the fact that it might be weird. Those suspicions were confirmed after my ticket was taken and I was handed a pair of 3-D glasses, and I settled in for a fun evening. The lights went down, the curtain dropped, and there on the stage were four 60-something Germans, each standing at a lighted console, all in front of a giant screen, with nothing else on stage. Also, they were wearing unitards, because when you’re a 67 year old German electronica legend, why not?

The show was bizarre in a very fun way. The girl was extraordinarily happy, I was entertained, the Germans were very German, and – surprisingly – I thought the music was all right; I even grabbed a copy of Autobahn from iTunes to add to the music collection. Even better, afterwards I read a bit about the band and discovered the following fun tidbit:

The band is notoriously reclusive, providing rare and enigmatic interviews, using life-size mannequins and robots to conduct official photo shoots, refusing to accept mail and not allowing visitors at Kling Klang Studio, whose precise location they used to keep secret. Another notable example of this eccentric behavior was reported to Johnny Marr of the Smiths by Karl Bartos, who explained that anyone trying to contact the band for collaboration would be told the studio telephone did not have a ringer, since during recording, the band did not like to hear any kind of noise pollution. Instead, callers were instructed to phone the studio precisely at a certain time, whereupon the phone would be answered by Ralf Hütter, despite never hearing the phone ring.

Good times, although I will never again be able to go to a concert without feeling slightly let down when I don’t get a pair of 3-D glasses after passing through the gates.

Kraftwerk at Disney Hall

Kraftwerk on stage at Disney Hall. Photo from the LA Weekly.

Photographic Slides on the Interwebs

Posted from Livermore, California at 9:16 pm, February 28th, 2014

Here are a handful of photos that haven’t shown up in the journal before, all discovered while looking for images to put in the new digital picture frame. Each of these was scanned from a slide taken more than a decade ago, back in the pre-digital days when you’d shoot perhaps three rolls of film during an entire trip and then perform various voodoo rituals to hopefully ensure that maybe one or two of the pictures didn’t completely suck.

Half Dome from Yosemite Valley

Half Dome from Yosemite Valley, 1998. Fall color is pretty.

Buddha in Angkor Wat

Buddha in Angkor Wat, 2001. I might be the only person on the planet who loves this shot, but it was a great moment sitting in Angkor Wat with the light hitting this Buddha in just the right way to light up the orange robes.

Pyramid of Khafre in Giza

Pyramid of Khafre in Giza, 2002. Bucket list, check.

The Future is Now

Posted from Livermore, California at 10:51 pm, February 27th, 2014

Two notes about two of my favorite companies:

  • Tesla Motors announced a bit more about their proposed “gigafactory” this week, which (if built) will produce as many lithium ion batteries in a single, massive US plant as were produced in the entire world in 2013. They will be partnering with established battery manufacturing firms, giving them the necessary know-how and experience to make this happen, and making it possible that a component that we take for granted as coming from Asia could suddenly be produced primarily in the US. What’s more, by bringing production in-house Tesla foresees significant economic advantages, and I suspect that they will work hard to innovate in battery technology and thus quickly drive down the cost and improve the efficiency of their most important component. Longer term, Tesla Motors might follow Apple Computer in dropping the second half of its name as the company gains the ability to produce massive battery packs that could be tied to the electric grid to provide large-scale energy storage, thus revolutionizing the electrical grid in as significant a way as what Edison and Nikola Tesla did at the turn of the century.
  • Meanwhile, Spacex will be launching another rocket to the International Space Station in mid-March. While they have seemingly made the once-unthinkable task of private rocket launches seem almost mundane, this launch will be noteworthy for having landing legs attached to the first stage. The plan is to try to “soft land” the rocket into the ocean as a test, with the goal of controlling things sufficiently that the rocket can eventually be flown back to the pad and re-used. Spacex has already reduced launch costs to almost one-third of what their competitors charge, but if they can create a truly reusable rocket then costs will plummet (think of the difference in costs of air travel if we only used each plane for a single flight) and an age of space exploration that rivals the journeys of European explorers after the Middle Ages could conceivably begin.

It is of course entirely possible that either of these companies could fail in their efforts, but it’s not hyperbole to say that if they each meet their goals that they will change the world as we know it in very dramatic ways. It’s a fun time to be alive.

2014, so far

Posted from Culver City, California at 8:46 pm, February 23rd, 2014

Here’s a recap of adventures in 2014 thus far:

  • Last weekend I had to make a very quick trip to the Midwest for a funeral, the first return visit to Cleveland in five years. Cleveland in February is not the best of months, but it was still both fun and sad to re-visit. The Cleveland Museum of Art has been significantly expanded and rivals any museum in the world, Case Western has upgraded everything from student housing to campus buildings, and Shaker Heights still feels like it would be a pleasant place to live. On the flip side, the economic downturn has not been kind to Cleveland, and the potholes were scary, the downtown was a ghost town after 5PM, and many buildings that weren’t vacant ten years ago are now shuttered.
  • After visiting Cleveland, I picked Aaron up at the airport at 11PM, and we then braved snowy roads in a Chevy Skidsalot for the two hour drive to Erie, slept for a very short time, and then got to see a bunch of people we’re related to. We’ve got some fun relatives who most definitely fall on the “good people” side of the spectrum.
  • Aside from expeditions to the Midwest, 2014 has mostly been about enjoying living in Southern California. Audrey got treated to lobster for Valentine’s Day, we took advantage of nice weather during a visit to the Getty, and there have been a few trips to the ocean to see what birds are visiting.
  • In homeowner news, a crack team of plumbers came to install a gas line and other hookups last Friday, and my first ever appliance purchase is now operational: the Samsung Future drying machine from space. It has knobs and LEDs and settings and musical tones and dries good. Removing the old, 320 pound stackable unit from its previous home in a hallway closet made for some good times, but I emerged (mostly) unscathed and much wiser in the ways of appliance disassembly.
  • One last minor note, but my iPhone battery was having trouble holding charge for more than a few hours, and rather than pay $80 and send my phone away for a week I figured I’d replace it myself for $25. After an hour, much stress about screws the size of dust molecules, cable connections smaller than fruit flies, and screen removal instructions that involved a suction cup and the admonition to “pull harder than you might think necessary”, my phone luckily turned on again and I am now completely certain that bomb disposal technician is not a wise future career choice for me.

Not the most exciting of starts to the year, but planning is underway for grand adventures that begin in July, so while it is slow now, there should be many, many days worthy of a journal entry during the latter half of 2014.

Shortly after landing I texted Audrey to let her know that I had just seen both of the buildings, and she was jealous.

Iceland Revisited

Posted from Culver City, California at 7:54 pm, January 31st, 2014

The Annenberg Space for Photography is doing an exhibit celebrating 125 years of National Geographic photography. Rather than simply print a handful of photos, the exhibit uses a number of LCD screens to showcase over five hundred iconic photographs. Immediately after visiting I came home inspired and purchased the largest-available digital frame I could find (18.5″) and Audrey and I now have about a hundred of our own photos on display in the living room.

In the process of going through photos to put into the frame I found a bunch from Iceland that may not have made it into the journal before, and since they are pretty and since it’s the end of the month and I need a third entry to meet my self-imposed quota, here are a few of them:

Breidavik church at sunset

Breidavik church at sunset. If I remember correctly this was taken at about 1AM – it gets dark late that far north.

Landmannalauger landscape

Landmannalauger landscape. This area is a bizarre volcanic region filled with amazing colors and twisted landscapes that is accessible only to cool people in high clearance four-wheel drive vehicles.

Skogafoss landscape

Skogafoss landscape. Skogafoss is a waterfall, and it turned out that the area upstream was also heart-warming.

Hafragilsfoss waterfall

Hafragilsfoss waterfall. This waterfall is downstream from Dettifoss, Europe’s most powerful waterfall.

2014 Predictions

Posted from Culver City, California at 10:33 pm, January 23rd, 2014

Following a disasterous set of 2013 predictions, predictions for 2014 are now ready to be proven incorrect. For those wanting to read about things that never came to pass, past year’s predictions can be found at the following links: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. Here’s what the crystal ball shows for the coming year:

  1. Since 2014 is mid-term election, here’s the obligatory election prediction:
    • Democrats will hold the Senate, barely, with their 55 member majority reduced to between 50-52 members (current projections are that it will be 50-50 after the elections). I think the Obamacare web site issues will mostly be forgotten in November, but I also think Republicans are likely to nominate better candidates than they did in the last two cycles.
    • The House will stay under Republican control – currently Republicans hold 234 seats, and after the election they will hold 224-234 seats (current projection is 228). The way House districts are drawn make it tough for things to change much so soon after the redistricting that took place for 2012.
  2. The values of Facebook (currently $56) and Twitter (currently $63) will both decline by at least twenty percent due to growth and revenue concerns. Revenue models based on the dual belief that everyone on the planet will sign up and that they will then spend money on Farmville are not something that smart investors should be banking on.
  3. Tiger Woods will win at least two major championships. He remains the most talented golfer alive and is way overdue.
  4. No significant new laws will be passed in the areas of gun control or immigration reform prior to the mid-term elections. For the record, I think it is inevitable that immigration reform will happen eventually, and thus in addition to the fact that it is a good idea on the merits, Republicans would be wise to pass something soon to prevent this from continuing to be an issue that damages them in national elections, but their less moderate members will continue to block any action.
  5. Google is going to make some sort of HUGE move into the entertainment space. It’s clear that with Google TV, Youtube and Google Fiber that they want to be in the living room and delivering content, and I suspect that they will try hard to make any such move well ahead of Apple to gain whatever advantage comes from being first.
  6. Lebron James will re-sign with the Heat, as will Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. There is noise around the idea that once he becomes a free agent Lebron will return to Cleveland or go elsewhere, but he wants to win as many titles as Michael Jordan and will thus stay exactly where he is. Also, Cleveland is cursed.
  7. Apple’s share of the tablet market will continue to fall precipitously. It dropped from 40% in 2012 to 30% in 2013, and will drop another ten percent to less than twenty percent of the total tablet market by the end of 2014. Since its announcement in 2010, and after four generations, the iPad hasn’t offered much new beyond better screen resolutions, and as a result most cost-conscious consumers will choose other options.
  8. Tesla will not deliver the Model X as scheduled in 2014, but will plan on delivering their next vehicle no later than Summer 2015. They will also not have rolled out their battery swapping technology due to a lack of demand – I think they announced that capability just to shut up critics, but I don’t think it’s something that people who are actually driving the car want. Finally, they will not have moved forward on their plans for a battery factory as their focus continues to be on the hugely successful Model S and their next generation vehicle, which if they can meet their goals will (I believe) be the most important vehicle since the Ford Model-T.
  9. The next evolution of TV – 4K resolution, which offers four times the resolution of current HD TVs – will be well underway by year’s end. While a handful of TVs are currently available offering 4K resolution, content is hard to come by, but by year’s end cable companies will have streaming 4K offerings, a few shows will announce plans to film in 4K, and the movie studios will be on the verge of announcing a 4K format to succeed blu ray.
  10. The Browns will draft a quarterback with their first pick, and whoever they get is not going to be nearly as successful as recently drafted QBs like Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck. The team should just grab the best available player in a draft with a ton of talented guys, and ideally they would use a few of their many picks to build an impenetrable offensive line – even a moderately talented QB with a reasonable amount of time to throw will be a success – but they will screw it up and reach for a guy that won’t be starting in three years. Sadly, I’ll still root for them until the end of time.
  11. Following Colorado and Washington, California and at least two others states will vote to de-criminalize marijuana use.
  12. Apple and Google will both unveil products and strategies that will focus those companies heavily on home automation. Google just bought Nest, a company that was a pioneer in putting thermostats and smoke detectors online, while Apple has already made small efforts to connect music sources, printers, etc, but this will just be the tip of the iceberg. We live in an era where companies are starting to find value for customers by putting even things like solar panels and lightbulbs online, and that will continue with everything from hot water heaters to alarm systems getting the “smart” treatment, resulting in more efficient energy usage whilst we wake up to lights that mimic the sunrise.

And there they are. Some of them may not seem impressive in retrospect (everyone would put money on Lebron staying put), but that’s what I’ve come up with after staring at this screen for far too long and trying to predict the future. The comments link is available to anyone who either wants to mock me or add some predictions of their own. See you in twelve months for the (likely embarrassing) retrospective.