2024 – Page 6 – Ryan's Journal

Little Paradise

Posted from Glenorchy, New Zealand at 12:07 pm, March 24th, 2024

The stargazing trip ended at 11:15 last night, so it was well past bedtime when I finally got home, and I was asleep within seconds. This morning was the last chance for a hike in the park, so shortly before sunrise I got up and embarked on the 1000 steps of the Red Tarn Track. It was utterly quiet as the sun was starting to illuminate the mountains, and I only saw six other people on the trail. Afterwards I took an inventory of my leg muscles to determine how well the rowing machine that I use at home had prepared me for three days of hiking in the mountains. My quads and (surprisingly) knees were both still on full speaking terms with me. My hamstrings were complaining but still amicable. My calves, however, had fully gone on strike, and all that was left in their place were raw knots of pain and anguish.

After saying a sad farewell to Aoraki it was off to the south, stopping along the way at High Country Salmon’s farm and main shop south of Twizel for lunch. From there it was a scenic four hour drive through pastures, hills, gorges and lakes until I reached Queenstown, panicked momentarily at seeing humanity again, and then quickly exited west towards the night’s lodging at Little Paradise Lodge.

I’m not totally sure how to describe the evening’s lodging. It’s a bit like Willy Wonka opened a four bedroom guesthouse surrounded by gardens. Everything (including the two buildings) is handmade from rocks, sticks, or other natural materials, there are thousands of flowers planted everywhere, dozens of unique statues made by the owner have been placed throughout the property, there are a handful of ponds and fountains, and there are random details in every corner that cause you to do a double take. I’m writing this from the “Fire of Romance” room (Audrey was unsurprised that I booked the romantic accommodation when she’s still at home) with a half dozen peacocks chattering outside, a view out over the massive Lake Wakatipu, and rain pattering on the ivy-covered roof.

Mount Sefton

Mount Sefton from the Red Tarn Track. This mountain rumbles multiple times a day as a chunk of glacier falls off of its slopes.

A Day Without Stairs

Posted from Aoraki / Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand at 11:32 am, March 23rd, 2024

After yesterday’s many hikes I figured I’d take it a little bit easier today, and started the day after sunrise for the first time so far on this trip. The morning’s destination was to an overlook of the Tasman Glacier, which at 24 km in length is New Zealand’s largest. Unfortunately, since the 1990s it has been retreating at a rate of about 200 meters every year, and while I remain optimistic that we’ll remedy the climate change issue at some point, it’s still sad to see such a massive force of nature and know that we’ve lost over three miles of it in my lifetime.

While visiting the glacier and the large lake at its face there was a constant sound of flightseeing planes and helicopters overhead, and only while hearing that did I realize how absent the sound of aircraft has been on this trip. I suppose that New Zealand isn’t under many flight paths, but it’s been nice having stillness that is seldom interrupted by anything other than birds flying overhead.

After a short rest, the plan for the afternoon was to hike the Red Tarns Track, which unlike the Sealy Tarns Track has only about 1000 steps. However, while walking to the trailhead I noticed that the mountain was out and showing off under clear skies, and since I didn’t need a lot of convincing to skip another brutal cardio workout it was off to the Hooker Valley Track for the third time in two days. Today I reached the trail during Saturday afternoon rush hour, but even having to weave between people every minute didn’t take away from the awe on this route. What’s more, the mountain was being fully cooperative, and I arrived back at my lodging five hours later with a huge number of mountain pictures to sort through.

Tonight I’m off on a stargazing trip (this area is part of a dark sky reserve since it has nearly zero light pollution), and the plan for tomorrow is to give the Red Tarns ~~stairmaster~~ Track a try before sadly leaving the park and heading south to Glenorchy.

Aoraki / Mount Cook

Aoraki / Mount Cook from the Hooker Valley Track. It was a pleasure spending a few days getting to know you.

I Am Good Tired

Posted from Aoraki / Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand at 12:35 pm, March 22nd, 2024

There are a few things on this trip that I didn’t want to miss due to weather or some other snafu, and so booked multiple days at a location for insurance. One of those “must-do” items was the Hooker Valley Track in Aoraki / Mt Cook National Park, a hike through a glacial valley past hanging glaciers, across wire suspension bridges that span roaring glacial rivers, and ending (on clear days) at a glacial lake with a view of Aoraki / Mt Cook rising up into the clouds. Waking up well before sunrise this morning, the skies were mostly clear, so thirty minutes before the sun was supposed to come up I set off on one of New Zealand’s most popular trails with the peaks of the mountains starting to turn red. The word “epic” can be overused, but this trail deserves the superlative; everywhere you look are vertical, glacier-covered mountains, multiple turquoise lakes collect runoff, and three 200 foot long suspension bridges shake and bounce as you cross the rivers. The trail more than lived up to expectations, and as an added bonus there were a dozen kea (large green parrots) at the trail’s end. These birds are nicknamed the “clowns of the mountains” and are insatiably curious. While one was attempting to untie my shoes, another was peeling stickers off of a sign, while others were fighting over tissues they had found, all while incessantly chattering and bickering with one another.

As clouds began to obscure the mountain I finished the three hour out-and-back trail, and after a short break decided to give the Sealy Tarns Track a go. This trail offers spectacular views, but unlike the Hooker Valley Track it is not an “easy” trail, instead consisting of 2200+ steps as it rises vertically through a 1600 foot gain in elevation. Whoever built and maintains this track deserves some sort of lifetime achievement award, because the trail was in excellent condition, but for nearly two hours of hiking, life is a brutal stairmaster as you trudge up step after step, pause to catch your breath (and enjoy the ever-improving views), and then continue the long slog upwards. As advertised, the views of the valley and surrounding glacier-covered mountains were awe-inspiring, but it was with a great deal of relief when I finally reached the tarn (pond) at the top and got to sit and enjoy the quiet, interrupted only by the conversations of some other hikers and the occasional small avalanche on the nearby glaciers.

After descending the stairs and making one last short detour on wobbly legs to Kea Point (no keas there, but it did have a pleasant view over a glacial lake) I returned to my lodging, grabbed a shower, and decided to call it a day. Until, that is, I noticed that the clouds that had been covering Aoraki / Mount Cook since morning had parted, and the late afternoon light was illuminating the mountain perfectly. And thus it was that I ended up hiking the Hooker Valley Track twice in one day, the second time at a brisk pace to try to beat the next round of clouds. The mountain was uncovered by clouds and showing off for the first two-thirds of my hike, although by the time I reached the trail’s end the clouds had again begun to move in. Still, tired as I was, the trail was just as beautiful the second time, and the return journey was made under red skies as the sun set.

Harry Chapin used to tell a story about his grandfather discussing “good tired” and “bad tired”. He describes “bad tired” as a day that wore you down fighting other people’s battles or fulfilling other people’s agendas, and “good tired” as a day that took everything out of you, but did so while you were chasing your own dreams and desires. I’m going to bed exhausted tonight, but I am good tired.

Kea, clown of the mountains

The kea are a tourist favorite but a nuisance for the locals. They will steal anything you leave behind, investigate everything they see, and constantly chatter to one another about the day’s gossip.

Landscape, Aoraki Mount Cook National Park

View from atop the stairs of doom. It’s incredibly scenic (and painful) as you climb up several thousand steps above the valley. The path actually continues upwards from the Sealy Tarns to Mueller Hut, but the stairs end at the tarn and I’m told from this point onwards you’re scrambling up loose rock, so I chose not to continue the cardio workout and merely enjoyed the view from this point.

Aoraki / Mount Cook rising from the clouds

Aoraki didn’t have great light on it when I visited at sunrise, and at sunset the clouds had again begun to close around the mountain, although the summit was lit up up rather beautifully.

Fresh Mountain Sashimi

Posted from Aoraki / Mount Cook National Park, New Zealand at 10:10 am, March 21st, 2024

Tonight’s lodging is in the shadow of Aoraki / Mt Cook, which at 3,724 meters (12,218 feet) is the tallest mountain in Australasia. The park is also home to 19 of the 20 peaks in New Zealand that are taller than 3,000 meters, and its 273 square miles are 40% covered in glaciers, so it’s quite the alpine destination. I arrived a bit late in the day to do much exploring, but if the weather forecast holds I’ll be wearing some holes in my hiking shoes over the next two days.

The journey to get here traveled through an area known as the Canterbury Plain, which one guidebook described as “scenically deprived”, and of which Hugh (half of the proprietorship at the Coombe Farm B&B) noted “not much to see along that route”. I thought the five hour drive up through farmland and fields was rustic and charming, but as warned, there weren’t a lot of compelling places to stop for the first several hours.

The first recommended opportunity to get out of the car was in the tiny town of Fairlie to visit the Fairlie Bakehouse. The town itself didn’t seem that notable – main street, lots of shops, a park – but the bakehouse is mentioned in every guidebook, and was the one place both Hugh & his wife Kathrine said to visit. The shop is famous for their meat pies, and while as an American I don’t know much about pies made of meat, I’ve got to say I bought three of them for the equivalent of about $5 USD each (flavors: meatball & mushroom, butter chicken, and vegetable curry), and I got an extremely tasty lunch, dinner and future breakfast out of the bunch.

After leaving the plains the scenery became more dramatic, first with glacier-fed Lake Tekapo appearing against a backdrop of mountains, followed by the even more impressive sight of Lake Pukaki surrounded by glacier-covered peaks. I made stops at both lakes, and at the second also visited a place that I had highlighted in my guidebook. High Country Salmon, located as far from the coasts as you can be in this country, supposedly boasts the best salmon sashimi in New Zealand, so I had to give it a try. They have nearby fish farms fed by glacier water, so it’s fresh as can be, and while salmon isn’t normally my goto sushi, I went back and bought a second takeaway portion after the first helping, and will probably be visiting them again in a few days after leaving the park.

Landscape, Aoraki Mount Cook National Park

The focus in Aoraki Mount Cook National Park is on the glacier-covered behemoths, but the soft light on these lesser peaks caught my eye, and since there will likely be an overload of glacier photos in the next few journal entries the B-players can take center stage today.

Extinct Volcanos

Posted from Akaroa, New Zealand at 11:23 am, March 20th, 2024

The trip wasn’t supposed to start on the Banks Peninsula. Originally the plan was to arrive in Christchurch and head up the mountains to Arthur’s Pass to do some hiking. However, there aren’t a lot of lodging options up there, and of the ones I liked, the first one was fully booked by a tour group. The second was being renovated and their website has said “opening later this year” since last October. There was one other I liked, an Airbnb, but from its description I got the distinct impression that the owner was lonely and renting out rooms to entice company to stay with her. And thus it was that my attention shifted from Arthur’s Pass to the extinct volcanoes surrounding Akaroa.

I woke up well before sunrise this morning, and after checking the tide charts made an early departure for the Onawe Peninsula, a landmass that is probably no more than 200m wide at its widest point, that juts nearly a mile out into the ocean, but that is cut off from land as the tide rises. There’s a 250 foot hill near the end with the remains of a Maori Pa (fort), and amazing views of the harbor. All in all a pretty nice place to watch the sunrise and a really nice way to start the day.

After returning to the B&B for a breakfast of bacon, eggs and sausage that my cholesterol-obsessed doctor must never hear about, it was off to the Hinewai Reserve, over 3000 acres of what was mostly former farmland that has been restored since the 1980s to native vegetation, much of it by a man named Hugh Wilson who is now in his 70s, still travels everywhere by bicycle, and who I assume is responsible for the signs throughout the reserve that ranged from a “max clearance: 1.65m” sign next to a portion of the trail with a low overhanging branch, to a warning about “no intelligent life” being found in cars (there was something about someone backing over some bushes), and a poignant one noting that a botanist cries every time a hiker carelessly breaks a fern frond. Aside from the signs, there were miles of walking trails through the dense rainforest, and it was a joy to walk through woods filled with plants and animals that were wholly unfamiliar, although I’m likely to be a bit stiff tomorrow after 20,000 steps through mostly vertical terrain.

The day concluded with a visit to pet a few of the local sheep (the B&B sits on 1200 acre farm), another short-ish hike up to a waterfall near the B&B, and a dinner of seared tuna and scallops in town. Tomorrow it’s off to the “Southern Alps” for more hiking, glacier viewing, and stargazing.

Two more items for the record. First, I only turned on the windshield wiper when trying to engage the turn signal about fifty percent of the time today, so there may yet be hope that I can learn to drive on the left without being a menace to others. Second, in case anyone is wondering, as far as I can tell the water in the toilet bowl goes in the same direction as it does in the northern hemisphere when flushed. Mark Rober can provide the science debunking that particular myth, but I was still kind of hoping to see the water going the wrong way.

Banks Peninsula Satellite Image

In case anyone is wondering how I chose to visit the Banks Peninsula, I was looking at the map and said “what is THAT???” Photo credit: NASA via Wikimedia Commons

Silvereye, Hinewai Reserve

Silvereye in Hinewai Reserve. Bear with me while I learn the names of the birds here through my magical process of “photograph it and upload the photo to Google image search to get an ID”.

Goblin Forests

Posted from Akaroa, New Zealand at 10:23 am, March 19th, 2024

And so it begins. The flight to Christchurch was probably the emptiest large plane I’ve ever been on, and just about everyone had their own row to stretch out and sleep on. The flight attendant says the return flights are full, but it’s the end of the season and they actually stop this service soon so very few people are going TO New Zealand, which bodes well for avoiding crowds while I’m here.

After passing through customs and getting my rental car, the initial shock of driving on the left and trying to figure out another country’s traffic rules was compounded by the fact that the “compact” SUV that I expected would be about the size of my Subaru was considerably larger, so in addition to accidentally turning on the windshield wipers every damn time I wanted to use the turn signal, I also had to figure out how to navigate what felt like a small boat through the streets of Christchurch. My chosen route was away from the highway and along curvy roads on a long-dormant volcano, which added to the fun. As the roads got narrower and curvier the farther I traveled from the city, it was actually with a bit of relief that I eventually turned on to a sketchy, one-lane dirt road with hundred foot drops on one side, since at least I didn’t have to think about which side to drive on any longer.

The route was incredibly scenic; I’m not quite sure how to describe it, but the myriad turquoise blue inlets felt a bit like fjords, except that they were surrounded by steep grassy hills with the occasional volcanic outcropping sticking out. The route would hug the water for a bit before climbing steeply up to an amazing view, then drop down to the next inlet. Surprisingly, when I first got to the water I saw a bunch of geese, and was excited to start getting familiar with the local birds. Then I got closer: Canada geese, a species that is more well-traveled than I am.

After getting closer to my lodging for the evening I detoured up to the Otepatotu Scenic Reserve, which was on the crest of the volcano and offered expansive views. There was a short hike up to the very top of the summit that went steeply through what the guidebook described as a “goblin forest”. The dense woods was full of mossy trees, ferns, and tiny birds, and while it was incredibly goblin-y, I failed utterly at finding the mythical monsters.

The final stop for the day was at my farmhouse B&B. As I was pulling up the road to the house I saw four beekeepers, and stopped briefly to figure out how to proceed. One of the beekeepers started walking towards me, with a swarm of angry bees circling her. As she got closer I warily rolled down my window to see what she wanted, at which point she told me “Be sure to keep your windows up, there’s loads of bees about.”

Akaroa Harbour

Akaroa Harbour from Otepatotu Scenic Reserve (try saying that name five times fast).

Exiting the Routine

Posted from San Francisco International Airport, California at 10:21 pm, March 17th, 2024

Almost ten years ago I was a contractor doing project-based jobs with long breaks in between. During one of those breaks in 2014 Audrey and I embarked on our world tour to Turkey, Africa and Madagascar, and it was a magical journey. Since then I’ve started working full-time, and while there have been some smaller adventures, there hasn’t been anything on the scale of a multi-month journey to the other side of the world.

I’ve been agitating for an extended break from work for a while now, but after getting OK’d for a sabbatical in 2021, COVID stepped in and changed everyone’s plans. Three years and some burnout later, I’m writing this entry from SFO while awaiting a fourteen hour flight to Christchurch, New Zealand. The next six weeks will be filled with mountains and Hobbits and glow worms as I get to roam around Middle Earth, then I’ll leave New Zealand and meet Audrey for another six weeks of kangaroos and tropical reefs in the Land of Oz. After the plane lands in Oceania I will have set foot on every continent, and it’s exciting (and honestly a little scary) to be off into the unknown again. Even moreso, it’s invigorating to be breaking out of the last decade’s routine, knowing that while I couldn’t tell you what I did most days over the past three months, the next three months will rarely have a day that doesn’t create a lifetime memory.

I’m insanely lucky to be able to do something like this, and SO very ready to again spend an extended period living life to its fullest.

2024: Things That Probably Won’t Happen

Posted from Culver City, California at 8:17 pm, January 16th, 2024

Per the annual tradition, below is my list of things that probably aren’t going to happen in the coming year. My batting average over the past 16 years of predictions would have me riding the bench in the peewee leagues, so check with your financial advisor before placing any bets based on what’s below. As happens every election year, the obligatory political predictions lead things off, so skip over the first three if you’re tired of the bare-knuckle-cage-match-inside-of-a-lunatic-asylum that is today’s political process.

Joe Biden (or another Democrat if his health fails) will be elected President.

Democrats are (understandably) unexcited about having a past-his-prime Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, but if he is running against Trump again he has a number of advantages. For one, Trump isn’t an unknown anymore, and a large swathe of centrist voters won’t support him because of his rhetoric, temperament, and penchant for unleashing mobs to burn down the Capitol. Second, while many Democrats are disillusioned over what they didn’t achieve under Biden, they may look much more favorably on his administration when compared with Trump, who appointed Supreme Court judges that overturned Roe v Wade, demonizes immigrants, wants to exit NATO and abandon Ukraine, doesn’t believe global warming is a threat, wants to repeal Obamacare, etc. That being said, this election could easily go either way, which is a scary thought.
Democrats will lose two Senate seats and lose control of the Senate.

A lot of Democrats who have been bashing Joe Manchin will miss him greatly when he retires, because he was the only Democrat on the planet who could get elected in West Virginia. Democrats also have to hold seats in Montana, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Virginia if they want to keep control, which would take a minor miracle to achieve.
Republicans will lose the House of Representatives, with Democrats gaining a thin majority of between 2-10 seats.

This prediction is one that could easily be wrong given that several states (North Carolina in particular) are redrawing the election maps in ways that should guarantee Republicans a few more seats, but in recent elections abortion has been a motivating issue, and just as with the Presidency, it should drive turnout for Democrats and push them over the edge in close races. Also, Republicans did cannibalize their own Speaker in 2023, so they have an uphill climb on winning the “don’t eat your leaders” voter.
SpaceX’s Starship rocket will successfully deliver cargo to orbit but won’t have a successful landing.

Starship is the largest and most powerful rocket to ever be built, and the crazy engineering geniuses at SpaceX will eventually get it to be as reliable as their Falcon 9 rocket, which currently launches (and lands) every 3-4 days. But I don’t think that’s going to happen in 2024, although they should succeed at getting payloads in orbit soon, given the fact that their last launch came tantalizingly close to reaching orbit before exploding spectacularly.
The US men’s Olympic basketball team will go undefeated, will win every game by at least fifteen points, and will romp to an Olympic gold medal.

The US lost to Canada and Germany on their way to a fourth place finish in the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup, but much like the 2008 “Redeem” Team, that means that the 2024 Olympic team goes in with a chip on its shoulder. The team looks like it’s going to feature Lebron James, Steph Curry, Joel Embid, Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant, all of whom see this Olympics as possibly their last chance to play together, so it should be the most impressive team the US has fielded since 1992’s Dream Team that featured Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and eight other future Hall of Famers.
Twitter will either be sold or spun off into a non-profit foundation.

Elon Musk’s takeover and management of Twitter has been much mocked, so while it may take more than another year, the end seems near. If he sells it will be for a tiny fraction of his $44 billion purchase price, but he’s one of the few people in the world that could look at $44 billion as a bad bet, so he may just choose to write down the whole thing and spin Twitter off into some sort of non-profit foundation in the name of “promoting free speech”.
2024 will see the start of antitrust actions against Apple over its app store and iOS ecosystem in both the US and EU, but nothing will be close to changing by end of year.

Regulators have been increasingly upset about Apple’s practice of forcing all transactions for app store purchases through Apple (where they take a 30% cut), and of making its text messaging incompatible with non-Apple devices, among many other practices. Apple proactively announced that it will support the more standard RCS text messaging format, likely due to scrutiny from regulators, and the iPhone 15 was forced to use USB-C connectors instead of Apple’s proprietary lightning connector due to EU action, but Apple is going to fight tooth and nail to keep its app store monopoly, and thus the long process of forcing them to change will only just be getting started when 2024 ends.
Deadpool 3 will become the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time.

The MCU has been a hot mess lately, with plots that are confusing, bad writing, and a fanbase that is suffering from superhero fatigue. But Deadpool is going to prove that Marvel can still produce a winner, and it will easily top Joker to become the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time. There is literally no one on the planet who doesn’t love Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, it will have been eight months since the last MCU movie, and the Spiderman movies prove that crowds will show up for a film about a character that they like.
Marvin Harrison Jr and four quarterbacks will be the top five picks in the NFL draft.

Quarterback is the most important position in sports, CJ Stroud and Joe Burrow have proven that rookie quarterbacks can succeed, and the 2024 draft is regarded as one of the strongest QB drafts in years, so Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, or another prospect will rise up during draft evaluations to join Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in the top five picks. Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Jr is supposedly the second coming of Megatron, so he’ll be the lone non-QB in the top five. This prediction goes against what most mock drafts are saying right now, but what’s the fun in predicting the same thing as everyone else?
Either Paramount Studios or Warner Brothers Studios (or both) will be sold to Netflix, Google, or another media company anxious to enhance their streaming offerings.

I’ve been very wrong about studio sales before, but there are already rumors that Paramount is for sale. Both Paramount and Warner Brothers are struggling to compete with the existing streaming services, and streaming media companies hungry for content could see the catalogs and production capabilities of these legacy studios as a bargain for their current market caps of around $9 billion (Paramount) and $26 billion (Warner Brothers).
Both the Tesla Cybertruck and the Apple Vision Pro headset will see disappointing sales and will have to either cut production targets or drop prices to attract buyers.

In a way these are repeats of predictions from last year, but now that the Cybertruck has launched and the Apple Vision Pro has a launch date it should be possible to measure sales. Estimates are that Apple will produce only 400,000 headsets in 2024 while they figure out how to build them, and the Apple fanbase should never be underestimated, but I wouldn’t be surprised if sales slow to a trickle after launch. Meanwhile Cybertruck supposedly has 1-2 million preorders, but as customers are asked to convert those into firm orders a lot of people are likely to balk given the price is much higher than initially announced, the range is much lower than originally announced, and driving a stainless steel triangle is a weird lifestyle choice.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will end the year up 15-25 percent.

I hate making stock market predictions because it seems a sure way to jinx everyone’s retirement savings, but by most objective measures (unemployment, consumer spending, etc) the economy has been strong lately. While currently bonds and savings accounts are paying a guaranteed five percent return, with the Federal Reserve signaling that interest rate cuts may be coming in 2024 money should migrate back to stocks, causing an increase from the 37,701 close at the end of 2023.
AI generated content will lead to confusion and scandals during the 2024 election cycle.

The world is still figuring out how to reliably discern content created by humans from content created by AI, and the latter will become a big problem in the 2024 election cycle. It’s very easy today to write a LOT of convincing (but fake) content using ChatGPT or other AI tools, and AI image and video generation makes it similarly easy to create realistic but fake visual media. Combined with pushback that has led to social media companies doing less policing of fake content, this election cycle will see a flood of questionable content circulated that impacts voters and makes it harder to decide what information is trustworthy.
Despite the doors literally falling off of 737-MAX planes, Boeing won’t face additional troubles in 2024 and will be on track for a very successful 2025.

A door fell off of a 737-Max in flight, which is one of the most terrifying things an airline passenger could imagine, but less commented on was that despite exposing the passengers to a whole new way of flying, no one was hurt and the plane landed successfully, speaking to how safe planes have become. Since the disastrous launch of the 737-Max revealed corporate and regulatory issues that were far more serious than anyone might have imagined, Boeing has been reorganizing and retooling, and the internal changes will start to bear fruit towards the end of the year as airlines continue ordering large numbers of 737-Max planes, and the new 777-X completes its certification and prepares for first deliveries in 2025.
Both the Jeddah Tower and the Dubai Creek Tower will resume construction this year, portending new records in the “world’s tallest” category.

The Jeddah Tower, slated to become the world’s first building taller than one kilometer, started construction way back in 2013, but was halted in 2018 with the building only one-third complete after being stopped by COVID and a Saudi corruption scandal. The Dubai Creek Tower was Dubai’s answer to the Jeddah Tower, and was set to become the world’s tallest structure (but not officially a “building”) when completed, but coincidentally (wink, wink) construction stopped at the same time as Jeddah Tower construction stopped. Both will resume construction this year, and the world may soon have two new engineering marvels rising high above the desert.

Like most years, I’m looking at these predictions and thinking “of course these things will happen”, but like most years I also expect to look back at them in twelve months to wonder how the hell I thought any of these were likely. This is year sixteen of this game, and it remains a fun annual exercise in thinking about the world and then being embarrassed at the later realization of how little I understand this giant blue marble.

The 2023 Predictions Scorecard

Posted from Culver City, California at 8:21 pm, January 5th, 2024

Here’s the annual scorecard for the predictions about the coming year. The original 2023 predictions were made twelve months ago when they seemed far less ludicrous than they do now.

SpaceX is going to have several spectacular failed launch attempts of its new Starship rocket, but will get the vehicle to orbit.

WRONG. They turned their new rocket into the world’s largest firework twice, but didn’t make it to orbit on either attempt. Still, there’s every reason to believe that this new rocket will eventually be successful, at which point humanity will be significantly closer to the science fiction future that I’ve been waiting for since I was a six year old at the science museum.
Apple is going to launch a new VR headset, but despite a ton of initial press it won’t catch on with consumers.

WRONG. Apple actually announced the Vision Pro headset back in June, but it isn’t yet on sale yet and thus it’s not possible to accurately judge consumer interest. Still, how many people want to pay $3499 so they can have creepier virtual meetings?
The Ukraine war will end by summer, with Russia ceding all claims to Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, in exchange for some sort of face-saving gesture like a promise that Ukraine won’t join NATO.

WRONG. There are so many reasons to be dejected about this war, and sadly after rapid gains by Ukraine last year, it has turned into a long slog with no signs of ending.
Ford will be responsible for 30% of all US EV sales by the end of the year.

WRONG. I have no idea what I was thinking with this prediction. The F-150 Lightning is one of the best electric vehicles on the market, and Ford’s electrification strategy is better than the other legacy automakers, but they’re not remotely close to holding 30% of the domestic market.
The US will default on its debt for the first time in history.

WRONG. Wrong, but my 401k is incredibly happy to be wrong about this one after a deal was signed in July. I’m not optimistic that legislators won’t blow up the country’s credit the next time the debt ceiling needs to be raised, but at least this year the lid stayed on Pandora’s Box.
Tesla will begin deliveries of its new Cybertruck by June 2023, but they won’t offer the truck for the $39,900 that was initially announced, and won’t sell a model that costs less than $50,000 in 2023.

WRONG. The Cybertruck didn’t launch until November, and did so at a higher price with lower range, towing, and payload capacity than they originally announced. I’m still a huge fan of Tesla – they build the world’s best electric vehicles and have forced every other automaker to innovate to keep up – but they could have given every truck owner a reason to go electric if they had focused on building a vehicle that catered to the needs to truck owners rather than building a stainless steel triangle because the CEO wanted to live out his Mad Max fantasies.
Donald Trump will drop out of the 2024 Presidential Race before the end of the year.

WRONG. I thought his legal troubles might drive him to drop out of the race, but instead it seems like he has decided that the best way to get out of legal jeopardy is get the job back that lets him pick the Attorney General.
Layoffs will continue in the technology sector in 2023, but there won’t be a broad recession.

CORRECT. Finally! A correct prediction! After a hiring spree during COVID, the tech sector trimmed over 200,000 jobs in 2023, but somewhat miraculously the economy as a whole continued to do well and avoided a recession while adding jobs.
At least two of the following three things will happen in the NFL: Tom Brady will retire (for real this time), Aaron Rodgers will retire, and Jimmy Garoppolo will join the New York Jets.

WRONG. Brady retired, so I at least got one. Rodgers should have retired, and the Jets would have been better off with Garoppolo at the helm after Rodgers played only four snaps for them.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will be a flop, earning less than the $317 million that the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull made.

CORRECT. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Desiny had a $174 million box office, making it the lowest-grossing film in the franchise. My brother said it was a good film, but (like most of the world) I still haven’t seen it.
Joe Biden will announce that he is running for a second term, and no major Democrat aside from (maybe) Bernie Sanders will announce that they are running against him.

CORRECT. Democrats are lamenting the fact that the guy most likely to be their nominee next year is 81 and far from his peak years, but much like the Republicans with Trump, you’d be hard pressed to find two people who agree on who should be running instead.
Kathleen Kennedy will be removed as the head of Lucasfilm.

WRONG. How is she still in charge of Star Wars?!?! The last Star Wars movie was in 2019, and just about everyone hated it. The next announced movie is still several years away and sounds like another cash grab rather than a compelling story. Hey Disney: please, please, please go find one of the nerds who has seen the original trilogy a thousand times, owns a Stormtrooper outfit, and gets incensed at the thought of Greedo shooting first, and get them to plot out the future of the franchise.
Twitter will see declining revenue and user engagement under Elon Musk, but no viable competitor will emerge by the end of the year.

CORRECT. I think history will remember Elon Musk fondly because of the achievements of Tesla and SpaceX, but whether due to drug use, hubris, or because he’s just plain lost his marbles, his work of late has a certain Dr. Evil vibe to it. Still, no one else has filled the void left by Twitter’s slow demise, despite Facebook’s efforts with Threads and former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey’s attempt with Bluesky.
Athing Mu of the USA will break the 40 year old world record in the women’s 800m.

WRONG. First, as a former runner I might be the rare person who even knows who Athing Mu is, but she’s a special talent in the running world. In 2023 the reigning Olympic gold medalist finished third at the World Championships, and afterwards seemed very ready to be done with running for the year. Hopefully the Olympics re-ignites her passion for the sport, but as someone who failed to reach his full potential as a runner I can understand how hard it can be to push yourself every single day for years on end if the motivation isn’t there.
2023 will see two “quiet” supersonic planes successfully flying over our heads.

WRONG. I so want there to be supersonic passenger planes again, and hopefully Boom’s XB-1 plane flies this year, as well as NASA’s X-59, but sadly both missed their planned 2023 first flights. Just as SpaceX reinvigorated the space industry, I want to see someone make aerospace exciting again and put the X-Jet or other crazy new vehicles in the sky, rather than just making small iterations on the wing-and-tube designs that have been with us for the past 50 years.

Final score: 4/15. At first glance that’s a pretty awful score, but tigers are supposedly successful on only 10-20% of their hunts, so 4/15 is a score that puts the best tiger to shame. Predictions for 2024 will be online soon.

mountaininterval.org - Ryan's Journal

Year: 2024